Global| May 10 2011U.S. Gasoline Prices Have Nowhere To Go But Up But Crude Oil Is Volatile
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Last week, the pump price for regular gasoline rose another penny to $3.97 per gallon, the highest level since July, 2008. Typically, however, pump prices start rising this time of year in anticipation of increased seasonal demand. To [...]
Last week, the pump price for regular gasoline rose another penny to $3.97 per gallon, the highest level since July, 2008. Typically, however, pump prices start rising this time of year in anticipation of increased seasonal demand. To account for this pattern, Haver Analytics calculates seasonal factors. The adjusted gasoline price fell to $3.73 per gallon, is lowest in four weeks. Yesterday, the spot market price for a gallon of regular gasoline held steady with last week at $3.23, down from the late-April high of $3.30.
Crude oil prices fell last week to an average $106.16 for a barrel of WTI. The price compares to the 2008 weekly low of $32.37. After falling to a daily low of $97.18 on Friday, prices recovered yesterday to $102.55 due Mississippi River flooding.
Higher prices continued to affect demand for petroleum products. Gasoline demand fell 1.9% on average during the last four weeks versus last year. Conversely, the demand for residual fuel oil, used for heating, rose 6.9% y/y and distillate demand rose 6.9% as well. Inventories of crude oil and petroleum products fell 2.3% year-to-year compared to 10.0% growth in the middle of 2009.
Finally, natural gas prices strengthened w/w to $4.49 per mmbtu but yesterday gave that all back with a decline to $4.23 and remained down from last year's early-January high of $6.50.
The energy price data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy and can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database. The daily figures are in DAILY and the gasoline demand figures are in OILWKLY.
| Weekly Price | 5/9/11 | 5/2/11 | 4/25/11 | Y/Y% | 2010 | 2009 | 2008 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Regular Gasoline ($ per Gallon, Regular) | 3.97 | 3.96 | 3.88 | 36.5 | 2.78 | 2.35 | 3.25 |
| Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl.) | 106.16 | 112.93 | 109.61 | 32.3 | 79.51 | 61.39 | 100.16 |
| Natural Gas ($/mmbtu) | 4.49 | 4.40 | 4.27 | 13.5 | 4.40 | 3.95 | 8.88 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
