Global| Sep 26 2017U.S. Gasoline Prices Weaken; Crude Oil Costs Continue to Rise
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Regular gasoline prices at the pump declined to $2.58 per gallon last week (+16.1% y/y), the lowest level in four weeks. Haver Analytics constructs factors adjusting for the seasonal variation in gasoline pump prices. The seasonally [...]
Regular gasoline prices at the pump declined to $2.58 per gallon last week (+16.1% y/y), the lowest level in four weeks. Haver Analytics constructs factors adjusting for the seasonal variation in gasoline pump prices. The seasonally adjusted gasoline price slipped to $2.53 per gallon.
WTI crude oil prices moved the other way and rose to $50.21 per barrel last week (12.5% y/y), the highest level since late-May. Prices continued to strengthen yesterday with a move to $52.22 per barrel. The two-month futures contract price was higher a $52.52. Brent crude oil prices increased to $56.00 per barrel last week, then rose to $58.99 per barrel yesterday.
Natural gas prices rose to $3.09/mmbtu last week (0.5% y/y) and were $2.97 yesterday.
In the week ended September 15, gasoline demand eased 0.3% y/y, while total petroleum product demand gained 0.5% y/y. Gasoline inventories fell 4.0% y/y, while inventories of all petroleum products declined 3.5% y/y. Crude oil input to refineries fell 8.1% y/y in the last four weeks, compared to sharp y/y improvement earlier this year.
The energy price data are reported by the U.S. Department of Energy. The petroleum demand and inventory figures are from the Oil & Gas Journal Weekly. These data can be found in Haver's WEEKLY database. The daily figures are in DAILY and greater detail on prices, demand and production, along with regional breakdowns, are in OILWKLY.
| Weekly Energy Prices | 09/25/17 | 09/18/17 | 09/11/17 | Y/Y % | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Retail Gasoline ($ per Gallon, Regular) | 2.58 | 2.63 | 2.69 | 16.1 | 2.31 | 2.03 | 2.30 |
| Light Sweet Crude Oil, WTI ($ per bbl.) | 50.21 | 49.07 | 48.58 | 12.5 | 43.22 | 48.90 | 93.64 |
| Natural Gas ($/mmbtu, LA, WSJ) | 3.09 | 2.95 | 2.88 | 0.5 | 2.49 | 2.62 | 4.37 |
U.S. New Home Sales Decline Unexpectedly Sales of new single-family homes in July fell 9.4% to 571,000
following an upwardly revised June gain of 1.9% to 630,000. The latter was
revised from 610,000. The July volume was the lowest since December's 548,000.
Expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey had envisioned 610,000
sales, which would have been unchanged from the original June report. The median price of a new home rose 0.7% (6.3% y/y) to
$313,700. June's median price was revised upward modestly to $311,600. The
average price of a new home rose 0.3% (+4.6% y/y) to $371,200. The July drop in home sales was spread around much of the
country. In fact, the only region with a gain was the Midwest, where sales rose
6.2% to 69,000 (-12.7% y/y); June sales there had risen 1.6% to 65,000. The
other three regions saw declines, a couple of them quite sizable. In the
Northeast, sales amounted to 32,000, down 23.8% (-13.5% y/y) from June's 42,000,
when they had risen 2.4%. Those in the West totaled 144,000, down 21.3% in the
month (up 1.4% y/y), a reversal of June's 16.6% gain. Sales in the South, the
region with the largest volume of sales, were 326,000, off 4.1% from June
(-11.7% y/y), which, in turn, was off 4.5% from May. The months' supply of homes for sale at the current sales
rate was 5.8, up from June's 5.2 months, and the highest since September 2015,
when it was also 5.8 months. The median number of months a new home was on the
market was unchanged from June at 2.9 and the lowest since the same amount in
December 2015. The data in this report are available in Haver's USECON
database. The consensus expectation figure from Action Economics is available in
the AS1REPNA database.
by Tom Moeller
September 26, 2017
U.S. New Single-Family
Home Sales (SAAR, 000s)
Aug
Jul
Jun
Aug Y/Y %
2016
2015
2014
Total
571
630
-8.9
561
503
440
Northeast
32
42
-13.5
32
25
28
Midwest
69
65
-12.7
69
61
58
South
326
340
-11.7
317
286
244
West
144
183
1.4
142
130
110
Median Price (NSA, $)
313,700
311,600
6.3
310,567
297,258
283,775
U.S. Consumer Confidence Improves Markedly
by Tom Moeller September 26, 2017
The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index strengthened 2.4% during August to 122.9 following a 2.3% July rise, revised from 3.2%. The index was just below its recent peak in March and neared the highest level since December 2000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a lesser increase to 120.0. During the past thirty years, there has been a 70% correlation between the level of consumer confidence and the y/y change in real PCE.
The increase in confidence reflected a 4.0% gain (20.7% y/y) in the present situation index to 151.2, its highest level since July 2001. The expectations reading increased 1.0% (20.8% y/y) to 104.0, its highest level since April.
The percentage of respondents indicating that business conditions are "good" surged to 34.5%, the highest level since January 2001. The percentage saying business conditions are "bad" matched the recovery low of 13.1%. The 35.4% of respondents saying that jobs are "plentiful" was the most since July 2001. The percentage claiming jobs are "hard to get" declined to a sixteen year low of 17.3%. These improved views of labor market conditions led to a labor market differential (plentiful minus hard to get) of 18.1 percentage points. This differential is 97% inversely related to the unemployment rate.
The percentage expecting business conditions to improve over the next six months declined to 19.6%, and remained well below its 26.9% March peak. The percentage expecting more jobs in six months declined to 17.1%, a nine month low and well below the 23.8% March peak. The percentage expecting their incomes to strengthen improved slightly to 20.9%, but remained below the March high.
The expected rate of inflation in twelve months declined to 4.5% and roughly equaled the 12-year low. The percentage expecting higher interest rates over the next twelve months fell to 64.8%, down from a March high of 72.2%, while 6.4% expected to buy a home, down slightly from the recent high.
Confidence amongst individuals over age 55 reached a new high for the cycle. Confidence amongst individuals aged 35-to-54 also improved moderately. Confidence amongst respondents under age 35 also rose following a sharp decline in July.
The Consumer Confidence data is available in Haver's CBDB database. The total indexes appear in USECON, and the market expectations are in AS1REPNA
| Conference Board (SA, 1985=100) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Y/Y % | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumer Confidence Index | 122.9 | 120.0 | 20.7 | 99.8 | 98.0 | 86.9 | |
| Present Situation | 151.2 | 145.4 | 20.7 | 120.6 | 111.7 | 87.4 | |
| Expectations | 104.0 | 103.0 | 20.8 | 86.1 | 88.8 | 86.6 | |
| Consumer Confidence By Age Group | |||||||
| Under 35 Years | 134.8 | 130.0 | 10.0 | 122.4 | 116.0 | 106.6 | |
| Aged 35-54 Years | 123.6 | 122.2 | 9.4 | 106.2 | 103.9 | 92.4 | |
| Over 55 Years | 115.6 | 113.3 | 36.8 | 84.6 | 84.1 | 73.8 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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