Global| Oct 18 2017U.S. Housing Starts Weaken to 12-Month Low
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
Total housing starts declined 4.7% (+6.1% y/y) during September to 1.127 million units from 1.183 million in August, revised from 1.180 million units. It was the lowest level since September 2016. Starts of 1.183 million had been [...]
Total housing starts declined 4.7% (+6.1% y/y) during September to 1.127 million units from 1.183 million in August, revised from 1.180 million units. It was the lowest level since September 2016. Starts of 1.183 million had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey.
Single-family starts fell 4.6% (-7.2% y/y) to 829,000 from 869,000, the lowest level since May. Starts of multi-family units declined 5.1% (+12.0% y/y) to 298,000, a twelve-month low.
By region, starts in the Midwest declined 20.2% (-12.2% y/y) to 154,000, a six-month low. Starts in the South were off 9.3% (-8.5% y/y) to 527,000, the lowest level since October 2015. Declines here have lowered the level of starts by roughly one-quarter since the January peak. Starts in the Northeast declined 9.2% (-6.2% y/y) for the second consecutive month to 99,000, the lowest level since May. Starts in the West improved 15.7% (17.2% y/y) to 347,000, a nine-month high.
Building permits decreased 4.5% (-10.0% y/y) to 1.215 million from 1.272 million in August. Permits to build single-family homes increased 2.4% to 819,000 (4.6% y/y), while multi-family permits were off 16.1% (-9.2% y/y) to 396,000.
The housing starts and permits figures can be found in Haver's USECON database. The expectations figure is contained in the AS1REPNA database.
| Housing Starts (000s, SAAR) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y % | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 1,127 | 1,183 | 1,185 | 6.1 | 1,177 | 1,107 | 1,001 |
| Single-Family | 829 | 869 | 841 | -7.2 | 784 | 712 | 647 |
| Multi-Family | 298 | 314 | 344 | 12.0 | 393 | 395 | 355 |
| Starts By Region | |||||||
| Northeast | 99 | 109 | 120 | -6.2 | 116 | 136 | 109 |
| Midwest | 154 | 193 | 161 | -12.2 | 185 | 150 | 159 |
| South | 527 | 581 | 611 | -8.5 | 584 | 556 | 497 |
| West | 347 | 300 | 293 | 17.2 | 292 | 265 | 236 |
| Building Permits | 1,215 | 1,272 | 1,230 | -10.0 | 1,207 | 1,178 | 1,053 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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