Global| Mar 12 2015U.S. Import and Export Price Declines Continue
Summary
Downward pressure on prices of internationally traded goods is ongoing. Import prices declined 2.8% during January (-8.0% y/y) following a revised 1.9% December fall, earlier reported as -2.5%. It was the largest of seven straight [...]
Downward pressure on prices of internationally traded goods is ongoing. Import prices declined 2.8% during January (-8.0% y/y) following a revised 1.9% December fall, earlier reported as -2.5%. It was the largest of seven straight months of decline and compared to expectations for a 3.3% easing in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. A 17.7% fall (-40.1% y/y) in petroleum prices paced the decline in import costs. Nonoil prices followed suit with an accelerated 0.7% shortfall (-1.2% y/y). Monthly declines extend back to April.
Last month's weakness in nonoil import prices was led by a 2.2% decline (+0.7% y/y) in foods, feeds & beverages and a 1.6% fall (-4.1% y/y) in prices for nonoil industrial supplies. That was followed by a 0.5% drop (-1.1% y/y) in motor vehicles & parts, following three straight months of having been unchanged. Capital goods prices were off 0.4% (-1.0% y/y) and nonauto consumer goods prices declined 0.3% (-0.4% y/y). They've been down or unchanged for seven consecutive months.
Export prices fell 2.0% (-5.4% y/y), the sixth consecutive monthly drop. Nonagricultural prices fell 2.1% (-5.3% y/y), the largest of six straight monthly declines. Agricultural costs fell 1.2% (-6.3% y/y), down for the seventh month in the last eight.
A 5.7% drop (-14.7% y/y) in industrial supplies & materials prices paced last month's weakness. Petroleum prices fell 20.1% (-41.6% y/y) and foods, feeds & beverage prices were off 1.6% (-5.6% y/y). Prices excluding foods & fuels were off 0.4% (-1.0% y/y), the fifth straight down month. Nonauto consumer goods prices declined 0.8% (-1.4% y/y), the largest of five straight monthly shortfalls. Auto prices slipped 0.1% (+0.3% y/y) for a second straight month but capital goods prices improved 0.1% (0.8% y/y), for a second consecutive month.
The import and export price series can be found in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are available in the USINT database. The expectations figure from the Action Economics Forecast Survey is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Import/Export Prices (NSA, %) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2014 | 2013 | 2012 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Imports - All Commodities | -2.8 | -1.9 | -1.8 | -8.0 | -1.0 | -1.1 | 0.3 |
| Petroleum | -17.7 | -12.4 | -9.7 | -40.1 | -5.3 | -2.6 | -0.3 |
| Nonpetroleum | -0.7 | 0.0 | -0.3 | -1.2 | 0.1 | -0.6 | 0.3 |
| Exports - All Commodities | -2.0 | -1.0 | -0.9 | -5.4 | -0.5 | -0.4 | 0.4 |
| Agricultural | -1.2 | -0.7 | 0.1 | -6.3 | -2.7 | 1.6 | 2.4 |
| Nonagricultural | -2.1 | -1.0 | -1.0 | -5.3 | -0.3 | -0.7 | 0.1 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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