Global| Mar 15 2019U.S. Industrial Production Edges Higher
Summary
Industrial production increased a less-than-expected 0.1% (3.5% year-on-year) during February following an upwardly revised 0.4% decline in January (was -0.6%). The Action Economics Survey forecast 0.4% growth in February. [...]
Industrial production increased a less-than-expected 0.1% (3.5% year-on-year) during February following an upwardly revised 0.4% decline in January (was -0.6%). The Action Economics Survey forecast 0.4% growth in February.
Manufacturing activity fell 0.4% (+1.0% y/y) during February, though January was revised higher to -0.5% from -0.9%. Utilities output jumped 3.7% (9.0% y/y), as a result of a return to more seasonal weather. Meanwhile mining activity continued its upward trend rising 0.3% (12.5% y/y).
The decrease in manufacturing production was driven by a 0.7% drop in nondurables (unchanged y/y). Durable output declined 0.1% (+2.4% y/y) with motor vehicles down 0.1% (-3.2% y/y) and machinery falling 1.9% (+4.3% y/y). These were somewhat offset by computers and aerospace which were up 1.4% (5.6% y/y) and 1.1% (8.1% y/y) respectively. In the nondurable sector, petroleum & coal plummeted 5.2% (-0.9% y/y), chemicals fell 0.6% (+2.8% y/y), while food grew 0.3% (-1.4% y/y).
By market group, consumer goods output edged down 0.1% in February (+0.1% y/y). Business equipment dropped 1.0% (+3.7% y/y). Construction supplies declined 0.5% (+1.4% y/y). Materials gained 0.5% (5.9% y/y), with energy materials up 1.0% (10.8% y/y).
In the special aggregate groupings, production of high technology products was unchanged (3.7% y/y). Slight gains (0.1%) in semiconductor & electronic components (1.8% y/y) as well as computer & office equipment (-1.1% y/y) were offset by a 0.3% decline in communications equipment (+12.1% y/y). Factory sector production excluding the motor vehicle and high tech sectors declined 0.2% (+1.5% y/y).
Capacity utilization edged down to 78.2% in February, below the 78.5% expectations from Action Economics Survey. Factory sector use declined to 75.4% down 0.8 percentage point from December. Mining decreased to 94.6% after reaching a cycle high 95.2% in December. Growth in capacity in the manufacturing sector continues to accelerate, up a cyclical high 1.4% y/y in February.
Industrial production and capacity data and US Population-Weighted Heating and Cooling Days are included in Haver's USECON database. Additional detail on production and capacity can be found in the IP database. The expectations figures come from the AS1REPNA database.
| Industrial Production (SA, % Change) | Feb | Jan | Dec | Feb Y/Y | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Output | 0.1 | -0.4 | 0.1 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 1.6 | -1.9 |
| Manufacturing | -0.4 | -0.5 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 2.3 | 1.2 | -0.8 |
| Consumer Goods | -0.1 | -0.7 | -0.7 | 0.1 | 2.2 | 0.0 | 0.6 |
| Business Equipment | -1.0 | -0.2 | 0.9 | 3.7 | 3.0 | 3.2 | -5.3 |
| Construction Supplies | -0.5 | 0.0 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 3.3 | 2.5 | 0.9 |
| Materials | 0.5 | -0.5 | 0.2 | 5.9 | 5.9 | 2.0 | -3.0 |
| Utilities | 3.7 | -0.9 | -5.2 | 9.0 | 4.3 | -1.3 | -0.4 |
| Mining | 0.3 | 0.3 | 1.4 | 12.5 | 12.7 | 6.4 | -9.7 |
| Capacity Utilization (%) | 78.2 | 78.3 | 78.7 | 77.2 | 78.0 | 76.1 | 75.4 |
| Manufacturing | 75.4 | 75.8 | 76.2 | 75.7 | 75.7 | 74.8 | 74.6 |
Gerald D. Cohen
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Gerald Cohen provides strategic vision and leadership of the translational economic research and policy initiatives at the Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise.
He has worked in both the public and private sectors focusing on the intersection between financial markets and economic fundamentals. He was a Senior Economist at Haver Analytics from January 2019 to February 2021. During the Obama Administration Gerald was Deputy Assistant Secretary for Macroeconomic Analysis at the U.S. Department of Treasury where he helped formulate and evaluate the impact of policy proposals on the U.S. economy. Prior to Treasury, he co-managed a global macro fund at Ziff Brothers Investments.
Gerald holds a bachelor’s of science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University and is a contributing author to 30-Second Money as well as a co-author of Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy.
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