Global| Aug 09 2018U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Decline
Summary
Initial unemployment insurance claims decreased to 213,000 during the week ended August 4 from a slightly upwardly revised 219,000 during the prior week. The Action Economics Forecast Survey called for a 220,000 reading. The four-week [...]
Initial unemployment insurance claims decreased to 213,000 during the week ended August 4 from a slightly upwardly revised 219,000 during the prior week. The Action Economics Forecast Survey called for a 220,000 reading. The four-week moving average of initial claims edged down to 214,250 near the 48-year low of 213,500 reached in May. During the last ten years, there has been a 75% correlation between the level of claims and the month-on-month change in nonfarm payrolls.
In the week ending July 28, continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose to 1.755 million from the slightly upwardly revised 1.726 million a week earlier. The four-week moving average of claimants increased to 1.745 million from 1.742 million in the prior week.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at its record low of 1.2%, where it's been since early-May.
Insured rates of unemployment varied widely by state. During the week ended July 21, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.29%), Nebraska (0.45%), Indiana (0.47%), North Carolina (0.49%) and North Dakota (0.52%). The highest rates were in New Jersey (2.53%), Connecticut (2.25%), Pennsylvania (2.02%), Rhode Island (1.94%) and Alaska (1.92%). Among the largest states by population the rate was 1.83% in California, 1.08% in Texas, 1.49% in New York, and 0.55% in Florida. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 08/04/18 | 07/28/18 | 07/21/18 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 213 | 219 | 217 | -12.0 | 245 | 263 | 278 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,755 | 1,726 | -10.2 | 1,961 | 2,136 | 2,267 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.2 |
1.4 |
1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
Gerald D. Cohen
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Gerald Cohen provides strategic vision and leadership of the translational economic research and policy initiatives at the Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise.
He has worked in both the public and private sectors focusing on the intersection between financial markets and economic fundamentals. He was a Senior Economist at Haver Analytics from January 2019 to February 2021. During the Obama Administration Gerald was Deputy Assistant Secretary for Macroeconomic Analysis at the U.S. Department of Treasury where he helped formulate and evaluate the impact of policy proposals on the U.S. economy. Prior to Treasury, he co-managed a global macro fund at Ziff Brothers Investments.
Gerald holds a bachelor’s of science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University and is a contributing author to 30-Second Money as well as a co-author of Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy.
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