Global| Aug 16 2018U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Decline
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased to 212,000 during the week ended August 11 from 214,000 the week before, which was revised up by 1,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey called for a 215,000 reading. The four- [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased to 212,000 during the week ended August 11 from 214,000 the week before, which was revised up by 1,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey called for a 215,000 reading. The four-week moving average edged upward to 215,500 from 214,500. During the last ten years, there has been a 75% correlation between the level of claims and the month-on-month change in nonfarm payrolls.
In the week ending August 4, continuing claims for unemployment insurance decreased to 1.721 million from 1.760 million a week earlier; that earlier figure was revised upward slightly. The four-week moving average of claimants fell to 1.738 million from 1.746 million in the prior week.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at its record low of 1.2%, where it's been since early May.
Insured rates of unemployment vary widely by state. During the week ended July 28, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.27%), Nebraska (0.43%), Indiana (0.45%), North Carolina (0.49%) and North Dakota (0.51%). The highest rates were in New Jersey (2.48%), Connecticut (2.25%), Pennsylvania (2.06%), California (1.93%) and Alaska (1.91%). Among the largest states by population, the rate was 1.07% in Texas, 1.48% in New York, and 0.57% in Florida. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 08/11/18 | 08/04/18 | 07/28/28 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 212 | 214 | 219 | -10.2 | 245 | 263 | 278 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,721 | 1,760 | -11.8 | 1,961 | 2,136 | 2,267 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.2 |
1.4 |
1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
More Economy in Brief
