Global| Dec 06 2018U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Ease
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 4,000 to 231,000 (-1.7% y/y) during the week ended December 1 from 235,000 in the previous week, which was revised up by 1,000. As was noted here last week, even though the data are [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased 4,000 to 231,000 (-1.7% y/y) during the week ended December 1 from 235,000 in the previous week, which was revised up by 1,000. As was noted here last week, even though the data are adjusted for seasonal factors, the early date for Thanksgiving may have affected these readings. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 225,000 claims. The four-week moving average of initial claims rose to 228,000, the largest since the April 21 week.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 74,000 to 1.631 million (-14.7% y/y) in the week ending November 24, from a slightly downwardly revised 1.705 million in the prior week (originally reported at 1.710 million. The four-week moving average of continuing claims rose by 250 people to 1,667,000.
The weekly drop in continuing claims reduced the insured unemployment rate back to the record low of 1.1% reached during October. Data on the insured unemployment rate go back to 1971.
Insured rates of unemployment vary widely by state. During the week ending November 17, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.27%), Nebraska (0.35%), North Carolina (0.39%), Florida (0.41%) and Indiana (0.43%). The highest rates were in California and Illinois (1.53%), Pennsylvania (1.57%), Connecticut (1.63%), New Jersey (1.94%) and Alaska (2.86%). Among the other largest states by population, the rate was 0.87% in Texas and 1.29% in New York. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 12/01/18 | 11/24/18 | 11/17/18 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 231 | 235 | 225 | -1.7 | 245 | 263 | 278 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,631 | 1,705 | -14.7 | 1,961 | 2,136 | 2,267 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.1 | 1.2 |
1.4 |
1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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