Global| Sep 20 2018U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Edge Down Further
Summary
Initial unemployment insurance applications decreased to 201,000 (-21.2% y/y) during the week ended September 15 from 204,000 in the prior week, which was unrevised. This was the smallest number of initial claims since November 15, [...]
Initial unemployment insurance applications decreased to 201,000 (-21.2% y/y) during the week ended September 15 from 204,000 in the prior week, which was unrevised. This was the smallest number of initial claims since November 15, 1969, when there were 197,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey again expected a rise to 210,000 applications. The four-week moving average of initial claims declined to 205,750. It is possible that claims were reduced somewhat because Hurricane Florence interrupted filing in the affected states, where Labor Department offices might have been closed or people couldn't get to them. If that is the case, a rebound might well follow.
In the week ending September 8, continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 55,000 to 1.645 million (-16.3% y/y) from 1.700 million a week earlier, revised from 1.696 million. It was the lowest level since August 4, 1973, when there were 1.633 million. The four-week moving average of claimants declined to 1.692 million.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at its record low of 1.2%, where it's been since early May.
Insured rates of unemployment varied widely by state. During the week ended September 1, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.19%), Nebraska (0.32%), North Dakota (0.36%), North Carolina (0.44%) and Indiana (0.46%). The highest rates were in California (1.64%), Alaska (1.59%), Pennsylvania (1.70%), Connecticut (1.87%) and New Jersey (2.38%). Among the largest states by population, besides California, the rate was 1.48% in New York, 0.92% in Texas and 0.49% in Florida. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 09/15/18 | 09/08/18 | 09/01/18 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 201 | 204 | 205 | -21.2 | 245 | 262 | 278 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,645 | 1,700 | -16.3 | 1,961 | 2,135 | 2,266 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.2 |
1.4 |
1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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