Global| Oct 04 2018U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Fall Back
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined to 207,000 (-18.5% y/y) during the week ended September 29 from 215,000 in the prior week, which was revised up by 1,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked to a smaller [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance declined to 207,000 (-18.5% y/y) during the week ended September 29 from 215,000 in the prior week, which was revised up by 1,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked to a smaller decrease to 210,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims was 207,000, down slightly from the prior week's 206,500. The latest individual week's reduction likely reflects some recovery in activity as the impact of Hurricane Florence diminishes. Indeed, the advance estimates of initial claims in North Carolina fell 4,908, not seasonally adjusted, and in Kentucky, they fell 4,635.
In the week ending September 22, continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell 13,000 to 1.650 million (-13.7% y/y) from 1.663 million a week earlier; that earlier number was revised up by 2,000. The four-week moving average of claimants declined to 1,664,500. This is the lowest four-week average since October 27, 1973 -- almost 45 years -- when it was 1,664,250.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at its record low of 1.2%, where it's been since early May.
Insured rates of unemployment varied widely by state. During the week ended September 15, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.18%), Nebraska (0.32%), North Dakota (0.32%), Indiana (0.43%), North Carolina (0.45%) and Utah (0.46%). The highest rates were in Pennsylvania (1.50%), Connecticut (1.62%), California (1.68%), Alaska (1.73%), and New Jersey (1.93%). Among other of the largest states by population, the rate was 1.20% in New York, 0.91% in Texas and 0.48% in Florida. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 09/29/18 | 09/22/18 | 09/15/18 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 207 | 215 | 202 | -18.5 | 245 | 262 | 278 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,650 | 1,663 | -13.7 | 1,961 | 2,135 | 2,266 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.2 |
1.4 |
1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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