Global| Oct 25 2018U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Move Higher
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 215,000 (-8.1% y/y) during the week ended October 20 from an unrevised 210,000 in the previous week. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a reading of 213,000. The four- [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance increased to 215,000 (-8.1% y/y) during the week ended October 20 from an unrevised 210,000 in the previous week. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a reading of 213,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims was unhanged at 211,750.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance decreased 5,000 to 1.636 million (-14.2% y/y) in the week ending October 13, from the slightly upwardly revised 1.641 million in the prior week. This is the lowest reading since August 1973 (this series goes back to 1967). The four-week moving average of claimants declined to 1,646,500, also a 55-year low. The previous week's reading was revised a touch higher.
The insured rate of unemployment declined to a new record low of 1.1% after remaining at 1.2% since early May. Data on the insured unemployment rate goes back to 1971.
Insured rates of unemployment vary widely by state. During the week ending October 6, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.20%), North Dakota (0.29%), Nebraska (0.36%), Indiana (0.41%), and Florida (0.44%). The highest rates were in Pennsylvania (1.42%), Connecticut (1.53%), California (1.59%), New Jersey (1.81%), and Alaska (1.83%). Among the other largest states by population, the rate was 1.14% in New York and 0.85% in Texas. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 10/20/18 | 10/13/18 | 10/06/18 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 215 | 210 | 215 | -8.1 | 245 | 263 | 278 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,636 | 1,641 | -14.2 | 1,961 | 2,136 | 2,267 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.1 | 1.2 |
1.4 |
1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
Gerald D. Cohen
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Gerald Cohen provides strategic vision and leadership of the translational economic research and policy initiatives at the Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise.
He has worked in both the public and private sectors focusing on the intersection between financial markets and economic fundamentals. He was a Senior Economist at Haver Analytics from January 2019 to February 2021. During the Obama Administration Gerald was Deputy Assistant Secretary for Macroeconomic Analysis at the U.S. Department of Treasury where he helped formulate and evaluate the impact of policy proposals on the U.S. economy. Prior to Treasury, he co-managed a global macro fund at Ziff Brothers Investments.
Gerald holds a bachelor’s of science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University and is a contributing author to 30-Second Money as well as a co-author of Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy.
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