Global| Dec 28 2017U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Steady in Dec. 23 Week
Summary
Initial unemployment insurance claims were steady at 245,000 (-5.0% y/y) in the week ended December 23. Expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey had been for 240,000 claims. The four-week moving average edged higher to [...]
Initial unemployment insurance claims were steady at 245,000 (-5.0% y/y) in the week ended December 23. Expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey had been for 240,000 claims. The four-week moving average edged higher to 237,750. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
In the week ended December 16, continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose to 1.943 million (-7.3% y/y) from 1.936 million in the week prior. The four-week moving average of claimants eased to 1.920 million, remaining near the lowest level since January 1974.
The insured unemployment rate rose slightly to 1.4% and remained near the record low of 1.3%.
Insured rates of unemployment varied widely by state. For the week ended December 9, the low end of the range included North Carolina (0.51%), Indiana (0.54%), Florida (0.57%), Nebraska (0.58%) and South Dakota (0.60%). At the high end were Pennsylvania (2.15%), Montana (2.16%), California (2.23%), New Jersey (2.34%) and Alaska (4.09%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 12/23/17 | 12/16/17 | 12/09/17 | Y/Y % | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 245 | 245 | 225 | -5.0 | 263 | 278 | 308 |
| Continuing Claims | 1,943 | 1,932 | -7.3 | 2,136 | 2,267 | 2,599 | |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | 1.4 | 1.4 |
1.5 |
1.6 | 1.7 | 2.0 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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