Global| Nov 01 2018U.S. Initial Claims for Unemployment Insurance Turn Back Lower
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance edged down to 214,000 (-8.5% y/y) during the week ended October 27 from 216,000 in the previous week, which was revised up by 1,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a reading of [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance edged down to 214,000 (-8.5% y/y) during the week ended October 27 from 216,000 in the previous week, which was revised up by 1,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected a reading of 215,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims rose 1,750 to 213,750.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance decreased 7,000 to 1.631 million (-14.1% y/y) in the week ending October 20, from 1.638 million in the prior week, which was again revised upward but very modestly. This is the smallest number since July 28, 1973 (this series goes back to 1967). The four-week moving average of claimants declined to 1,640,750, also a 55-year low. The previous week's reading was also revised a touch higher.
The insured rate of unemployment stayed at its new record low of 1.1% for a second week. Data on the insured unemployment rate go back to 1971.
Insured rates of unemployment vary widely by state. During the week ending October 13, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.22%), North Dakota (0.32%), Nebraska (0.36%), Indiana (0.41%), and Florida (0.44%). The highest rates were in Pennsylvania (1.41%), Connecticut (1.57%), California (1.60%), New Jersey (1.86%), and Alaska (1.93%). Among the other largest states by population, the rate were 1.15% in New York, Illinois at 1.27% and 0.85% in Texas. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 10/27/18 | 10/20/18 | 10/13/18 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 214 | 216 | 210 | -8.5 | 245 | 263 | 278 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,631 | 1,638 | -14.1 | 1,961 | 2,136 | 2,267 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.1 | 1.1 |
1.4 |
1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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