U.S. Initial Unemployment Claims Inch Higher, Rate Ticks Up
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 216,000 (-13.6% y/y) during the week ended November 10 from 214,000 in the previous week, which was unrevised. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 213,000 claims. The four- [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 216,000 (-13.6% y/y) during the week ended November 10 from 214,000 in the previous week, which was unrevised. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 213,000 claims. The four-week moving average of initial claims of 215,250 stands above the low of 206,000 in mid-September.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose to 1.676 million (-11.3% y/y) in the week ending November 3 from 1.630 million in the prior week, which was revised from 1.623 million. This is the highest level of continuing claims since September 1. The four-week moving average of claimants climbed to 1.644 million from 1.635 million.
The insured rate of unemployment inched back up to 1.2% after sitting at the record low of 1.1% for three weeks. These data extend back to 1971. Prior to September 2016, the record low had been 1.6% in 2000.
Insured rates of unemployment vary widely by state. During the week ending October 27, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.21%), North Dakota (0.31%) and Nebraska (0.33%), with Indiana, New Hampshire, North Carolina and Utah all at 0.46%. The highest rates were in Pennsylvania (1.42%), Connecticut (1.56%), California (1.64%), New Jersey (1.88%) and Alaska (2.20%). Among the other largest states by population, the rates were 1.16% in New York, 1.26% in Illinois, 0.85% in Texas and 0.48% in Florida. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 11/10/18 | 11/03/18 | 10/27/18 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Initial Claims | 216 | 214 | 215 | -13.6 | 245 | 263 | 278 |
Continuing Claims | -- | 1,676 | 1,630 | -11.3 | 1,961 | 2,136 | 2,267 |
Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.1 |
1.4 |
1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.