Global| Oct 10 2019U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Decrease Modestly
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance eased to 210,000 (-0.9% y/y) during the week ended October 5 from 220,000 in the previous week, revised from 219,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 217,000. The four-week [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance eased to 210,000 (-0.9% y/y) during the week ended October 5 from 220,000 in the previous week, revised from 219,000. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 217,000. The four-week moving average of initial claims rose 1,000 to 213,750. During the last twenty years, there has been a 68% correlation between the number of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose to 1.684 million (+1.0% y/y) in the week ending September 28 from 1.655 million in the prior week, revised from 1.651 million. Modest as the year-to-year increase is, it is the first positive such comparison since January 2010. The four-week moving average of claimants was 1.665 million, up from 1.662 million the week before.
The insured rate of unemployment for the week ending September 28 ticked back up to its longstanding 1.2% after holding for two weeks at 1.1%, which is the record low. Data on the insured unemployment rate go back to 1971.
Insured rates of unemployment vary widely by state. During the week ending September 21, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.19%), Nebraska (0.23%), North Dakota (0.32%), New Hampshire (0.41%) and Utah (0.41%). The highest rates were in Pennsylvania (1.47%), Alaska (1.54%), Connecticut (1.55%), California (1.62%), and New Jersey (1.80%). Among the other largest states by population, the rate was 0.93% in Texas, 0.46% in Florida, and 1.11% in New York. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 10/05/19 | 09/28/19 | 09/21/19 | Y/Y % | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 210 | 220 | 215 | -0.9 | 220 | 244 | 262 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,684 | 1,655 | 1.0 | 1,756 | 1,961 | 2,135 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.1 |
1.2 |
1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
More Economy in Brief
