Global| Jul 01 2021U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Decrease to Pandemic Low
Summary
• Continuing claims for state benefits rose moderately. • PUA claims rose for third consecutive week, but held to recent flat trend. • Total weeks claimed decrease to low since April 4, 2020. Initial claims for unemployment insurance [...]
• Continuing claims for state benefits rose moderately.
• PUA claims rose for third consecutive week, but held to recent flat trend.
• Total weeks claimed decrease to low since April 4, 2020.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 51,000 in the week ended June 26 to 364,000 from 415,000 in the previous week, which was initially 411,000. The June 26 number was the lowest since March 14, 2020, just as the pandemic was settling in. The Action Economics Forecast Survey panel expected new claims to decline to 389,000. The 4-week moving average fell 6,000 last week to 392,750 from 398,750.
Initial claims for the federal Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA) program rose for a third consecutive week, increasing to 115,267 in the June 26 week from an upward-revised 111,778 in the prior week (initially 104,682). Despite the three increases, the number of claims is maintaining a flat pattern near pandemic lows; this has been in place since early April. The PUA program provides benefits to individuals who are not eligible for regular state unemployment insurance benefits, such as the self-employed. Given the brief history of this program, these and other COVID-related series are not seasonally adjusted.
Continuing claims for regular state unemployment insurance rose 56,000 in the week ended June 19 to 3.469 million; the prior week was revised upward 23,000 to 3.413 million. The insured rate of unemployment was also revised upward, going back to the 2.5% of the prior two weeks, and it remained there in the June 19 week. This rate reached a high of 15.9% in the week of May 9, 2020.
Continued claims for PUA fell to 5.936 million in the week ended June 12, again the lowest since the week ended April 25, 2020, from 5.951 in the previous week. Continued PEUC claims maintained their recent tight range, decreasing 12,117 to 5.262 million in the June 12 week from 5.274 million in the previous week. The Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation (PEUC) program covers people who have exhausted their state unemployment insurance benefits.
The total number of all state, federal, and PUA and PEUC continued weeks claimed was 14.660 million in the week ended June 12, a decrease of 180,890 from the previous week. This was the lowest continued weeks claimed since April 4, 2020. These figures are not seasonally adjusted.
The state insured rates of unemployment in regular programs continued to vary widely. In the week ending May 29, the highest insured unemployment rates were in Rhode Island (5.10%), Nevada (4.43%), Connecticut (3.80%) California (3.61%) and Illinois (3.55%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.61%), Alabama (0.65%), Utah (0.68%), Nebraska (0.75%) and Idaho (0.83%). Insured unemployment rates in other large states included New York (3.42%), Texas (1.63%) and Florida (1.07%). These state rates are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 06/26/21 | 06/19/21 | 06/12/21 | Y/Y % | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 364 | 415 | 418 | -74.7 | 1,352 | 218 | 220 |
| Initial Claims (NSA) | 359 | 397 | 408 | -74.8 | 1,353 | 218 | 221 |
| Initial Claims Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (NSA) | 115 | 112 | 98 | -88.4 | -- | -- | -- |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,469 | 3,413 | -80.4 | 10,380 | 1,699 | 1,754 |
| Continuing Claims (NSA) | -- | 3,271 | 3,233 | -81.3 | 10,370 | 1,704 | 1,763 |
| Continuing Claims Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (NSA) | -- | -- | 5,936 | -55.1 | -- | -- | -- |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 2.5 | 2.5 |
12.2 |
7.1 | 1.2 | 1.2 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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