Global| May 15 2014U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Drop Below 300K
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 297,000 (-16.3% y/y) in the week ended May 10 from 321,000 in the week ended May 3, revised from 319,000. Expectations had been for 320,000 claims in the Action Economics Forecast [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance dropped to 297,000 (-16.3% y/y) in the week ended May 10 from 321,000 in the week ended May 3, revised from 319,000. Expectations had been for 320,000 claims in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. The four-week moving average of initial claims edged down to 323,250. The latest figure is the lowest since January 2007.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance in the week ended May 3 decreased to 2.667 million (-11.6% y/y). The four-week moving average fell to 2.694 million, the lowest level since November 2007. The insured rate of unemployment remained at 2.0%, its cycle low. This particular count covers only "regular" programs and does not include all extended benefit and other specialized jobless insurance programs. In the week of April 26, the latest available, the total of all benefit recipients fell 128,000 to 2.705 million (-44.2% y/y), also the cycle low. This broader measure is not seasonally adjusted. It compares to a cycle peak of 12.060 million in January 2010 and pre-recession figures that averaged 2.596 million in 2007. Year-on-year comparisons are impacted by the expiration of the Emergency Unemployment Compensation program at the end of 2013.
By state in the April 26 week, the insured rate of unemployment continued to vary greatly with South Dakota (0.5%), North Dakota (0.6%), Nebraska (0.8%), South Carolina (1.0%) and Louisiana (1.0%) at the low end of the range. At the high end were Rhode Island (3.0%), Connecticut (3.0%), California (3.1%), Puerto Rico (3.2%), New Jersey (3.3%) and Alaska (4.6%). These data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 05/10/14 | 05/03/14 | 04/26/14 | Y/Y % | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 297 | 321 | 345 | -16.3 | 343 | 375 | 409 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 2,667 | 2,676 | -11.6 | 2,977 | 3,319 | 3,742 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.3 (5/13) |
2.3 | 2.6 | 3.0 |
| Total "All Programs" (NSA) | -- | -- | 2,705 | -44.2 | 4.651 mil. | 6.049 mil. | 7.725 mil. |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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