Global| Dec 27 2012U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Ease
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased last week (ended December 22) to 350,000 following an uptick the week before to 362,000 (revised marginally from 361,000). Consensus expectations had looked for a nearly unchanged [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased last week (ended December 22) to 350,000 following an uptick the week before to 362,000 (revised marginally from 361,000). Consensus expectations had looked for a nearly unchanged figure of 360,000. This latest decrease took the four-week moving average down to 356,750, the lowest since March 15, 2008.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance in the week ended December 15 declined to 3.206M (-9.9% y/y). The insured rate of unemployment held at 2.5%. This particular count covers only "regular" programs and does not include all extended benefit and other specialized jobless insurance programs. In the week of December 8, the latest figure available, the grand total of all benefit recipients rose 73,000 w/w to 5.476M. This was still down nearly one-quarter, more specifically, 24.3%, from a year ago, and compares to a cycle peak of 12.060M in January 2010.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance programs are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, including the seasonal factor series, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states, including the unemployment rates that determine individual state eligibility for the extended benefits programs and specific "tiers" of the emergency program, are in REGIONW, a database of weekly data for states and various regional divisions. Note that the Labor Department reports individual state data and the extended benefit program data with a one-week lag compared to the "regular program" national totals. The consensus estimates come from the Action Economics survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | |||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/22/12 | 12/15/12 | 12/08/12 | Y/Y % | 2011 | 2010 | 2009 | |
| Initial Claims | 350 | 362 | 344 | -8.9 | 409 | 459 | 574 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3206 | 3238 | -10.8 | 3745 | 4544 | 5807 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate | -- | 2.5 | 2.5 | 2.8 (12/11) | 3.0 | 3.6 | 4.4 |
| Total "All Programs" (NSA) | -- | -- | 5.476M | -24.3 | 7.750M | 9.850M | 9.163M |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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