Global| Jun 28 2018U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Have Moderate Increase
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 227,000 during the week ended June 23, an increase of 9,000 from the 218,000 of the prior week; that earlier figure was unrevised. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 227,000 during the week ended June 23, an increase of 9,000 from the 218,000 of the prior week; that earlier figure was unrevised. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for 220,000 claims. The four-week moving average of initial claims was 222,000, barely different from the 221,000 of the week before. During the last ten years, there has been a 75% correlation between the level of initial claims and the month-to-month change in nonfarm payroll employment.
In the week ending June 16, continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell to 1.705 million from 1.726 million, revised from 1.723 million. The four-week moving average of claimants was 1.720 million, down slightly from 1.723 million in the June 9 week and again the lowest since December 8, 1973.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at the record low of 1.2% for a seventh consecutive week.
Insured rates of unemployment varied widely by state. During the week ended June 9, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.26%), Nebraska (0.45%), Indiana and North Carolina (0.46%), Florida (0.48%) and Utah (0.49%). The highest rates were in Pennsylvania (1.69%), California (1.85%), Connecticut (1.87%), New Jersey (1.98%) and Alaska (2.33%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 06/23/18 | 06/16/18 | 06/09/18 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 227 | 218 | 221 | -6.6 | 245 | 262 | 278 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,705 | 1,726 | -12.6 | 1,961 | 2,135 | 2,266 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.2 |
1.4 |
1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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