Global| Nov 14 2019U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Highest Since June
Summary
Initial applications for unemployment insurance rose to 225,000 (+0.3% y/y) during the week ended November 9 from 211,000 in the prior week, which was unrevised. The latest week is hardly a large number, but it is the highest since [...]
Initial applications for unemployment insurance rose to 225,000 (+0.3% y/y) during the week ended November 9 from 211,000 in the prior week, which was unrevised. The latest week is hardly a large number, but it is the highest since June 22. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 215,000 claims. The four-week moving average of initial claims increased to 217,000 from 215,250. During the last 20 years, there has been a 71% correlation between the number of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payroll employment.
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance decreased to 1.683 million during the week ended November 2 from 1.693 million in the week prior, revised from 1.689 million. The four-week moving average of claimants held steady at 1.688 million.
In the week ending November 2, the insured rate of unemployment was again at 1.2%. The record low for this rate is 1.1%, which prevailed for two weeks in mid-September. Data on the insured unemployment rate dates back to 1971.
Insured rates of unemployment vary widely by state. During the week ending October 26, the lowest rates were in Nebraska (0.19%), South Dakota (0.21%), North Dakota (0.40%), Florida (0.41%) and New Hampshire (0.43%). The highest rates were in Pennsylvania (1.48%), Connecticut (1.53%), California (1.56%), New Jersey (1.82%), and Alaska (2.07%). Among the other largest states by population, the rate was 1.28% in Illinois, 0.94% in Texas and 1.16% in New York. These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 11/09/19 | 11/02/19 | 10/26/19 | Y/Y % | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 225 | 211 | 219 | 0.3 | 220 | 244 | 262 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,683 | 1,693 | 0.3 | 1,756 | 1,961 | 2,135 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.2 |
1.2 |
1.2 | 1.4 | 1.6 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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