Global| Feb 15 2018U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Increase, But Still Low
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 230,000 (-5.2% y/y) during the week ended February 10 from 223,000 claims in the prior week, which was slightly revised from 221,000. Expectations in the Action Economics Forecast [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance rose to 230,000 (-5.2% y/y) during the week ended February 10 from 223,000 claims in the prior week, which was slightly revised from 221,000. Expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey were for 228,000 claims. The four-week moving average increased to 228,500, the second smallest amount in almost exactly 45 years. During the last ten years, there has been a 74% correlation between the level of initial claims and the m/m change in nonfarm payrolls.
In the week ended February 3, continuing claims for unemployment insurance rose to 1.942 million (-6.0% y/y) from 1.927 million. The four-week moving average of claimants eased to 1.941 million.
The insured rate of unemployment held steady at 1.4%.
Insured rates of unemployment varied widely by state. During the week ended January 27, the lowest rates were in Florida (0.51%), North Carolina (0.55%), Georgia (0.73%), Virginia (0.75%) and Tennessee (0.79%). At the high end were Alaska (3.90%), Connecticut (3.02%), New Jersey (3.00%), Montana (2.81%) and Rhode Island (2.75%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 02/10/18 | 02/03/18 | 01/27/18 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 230 | 223 | 230 | -5.2 | 245 | 263 | 278 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,942 | 1,927 | -6.0 | 1,962 | 2,135 | 2,266 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.4 | 1.4 |
1.5 |
1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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