Global| Jun 14 2018U.S. Initial Unemployment Insurance Claims Sustain Low Range
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance eased to 218,000 during the week ended June 9 from an unrevised 222,000 during the prior week. Expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a modest increase to 224,000 [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance eased to 218,000 during the week ended June 9 from an unrevised 222,000 during the prior week. Expectations in the Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for a modest increase to 224,000 claims. The four-week moving average of claims edged down to 224,250. During the last ten years, there has been a 73% correlation between the level of initial claims and the month-to-month change in nonfarm payroll employment.
In the week ending June 2, continuing claims for unemployment insurance fell to 1.697 million from 1.746 million, revised from 1.741 million. The four-week moving average of claimants was 1.726 million, down somewhat from 1.730 million in the May 26 week and the lowest since December 8, 1973.
The insured rate of unemployment remained at the record low of 1.2% for a fifth consecutive week.
Insured rates of unemployment varied widely by state. During the week ended May 26, the lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.24%), Nebraska (0.39%), Indiana (0.44%), both Florida and North Dakota (0.46%) and North Carolina (0.47%). The highest rates were in Pennsylvania (1.70%), California (1.86%), Connecticut (1.90%), New Jersey (2.02%) and Alaska (2.50%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment insurance are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
| Unemployment Insurance (SA, 000s) | 06/09/18 | 06/02/18 | 05/26/18 | Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 218 | 222 | 223 | -9.2 | 245 | 262 | 278 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 1,697 | 1,746 | -12.8 | 1,961 | 2,135 | 2,266 |
| Insured Unemployment Rate (%) | -- | 1.2 | 1.2 |
1.4 |
1.4 | 1.6 | 1.7 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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