Global| Dec 23 2020U.S. Mortgage Applications Edge Up from Refinancing
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
• Mortgage applications rose only marginally. • Decline in purchase applications offset by increase in refinancing. • Mortgage interest rates mostly lower. The Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Loan Applications Index edged up [...]
• Mortgage applications rose only marginally.
• Decline in purchase applications offset by increase in refinancing.
• Mortgage interest rates mostly lower.
The Mortgage Bankers Association Mortgage Loan Applications Index edged up 0.8% w/w (+80.5% y/y) in the week ended December 18, on top of a 1.1% weekly gain in the previous week. A 3.8% w/w rise in refinancing applications more than offset a 4.6% w/w decline in applications for purchase.
The effective interest rate on a 30-year mortgage was unchanged at a record low 2.95% while the 15-year rate dropped six basis points to a new survey low of 2.50%. These surveys began in January 1990. The effective rate for a Jumbo mortgage fell three basis points to 3.19%, regaining its record low first reached in the week of November 13. The rate on a five-year ARM jumped up 18 basis points to 2.89%.
The average mortgage loan size increased to $327,100 from $320,600 in the previous week. The average size of a purchase loan rose to $376,800, a new record high, from $374,700. The average size of a refinanced loan increased to $310,400 from $300,300.
Applications for fixed-rate loans increased 0.7% w/w (+84.6% y/y) and applications for adjustable-rate mortgages jumped 6.7% w/w (-16.4% y/y).
This survey covers over 75% of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.
| MBA Mortgage Applications (%, SA) | 12/18/20 | 12/11/20 | 12/04/20 | Y/Y | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Market Index | 0.8 | 1.1 | -1.2 | 80.5 | 32.4 | -10.4 | -17.8 |
| Purchase | -4.6 | 1.8 | -5.0 | 26.5 | 6.6 | 2.1 | 5.6 |
| Refinancing | 3.8 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 124.3 | 71.1 | -24.3 | -34.0 |
| 30-Year Effective Mortgage Interest Rate (%) | 2.95 | 2.95 | 3.00 | 4.07
(Dec '19) |
4.34 | 4.94 | 4.32 |
Sandy Batten
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia. Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan. In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association. Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.
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