Global| Jun 18 2014U.S. Mortgage Loan Applications Decline as Interest Rates Move Up
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that their total Mortgage Market Volume Index declined 9.2% last week (-45.8% y/y) and reversed the prior week's gain. Applications remained two-thirds below the peak in September 2012. [...]
The Mortgage Bankers Association reported that their total Mortgage Market Volume Index declined 9.2% last week (-45.8% y/y) and reversed the prior week's gain. Applications remained two-thirds below the peak in September 2012. Applications to refinance an existing loan fell 12.7% (-58.4% y/y) while home purchase applications declined 4.7% (-15.1% y/y).
The effective interest rate on a 15-year mortgage moved up again, last week to 3.54%, the highest level since early-May. The effective rate on a 30-year fixed rate loan increased to 4.43%. The rate on a Jumbo 30-year loan edged up to 4.35%. For adjustable 5-year mortgages, the effective interest rate held steady at 3.31%, its highest level since early-May.
The average mortgage loan size fell back to $245,300. The average loan size for home purchases inched up to $278,700 but for refinancings it fell to $214,200.
Applications for fixed interest rate loans declined 46.3% y/y while adjustable rate loan applications were off by 39.8% y/y.
The survey covers over 75 percent of all U.S. retail residential mortgage applications, and has been conducted weekly since 1990. Respondents include mortgage bankers, commercial banks and thrifts. The base period and value for all indexes is March 16, 1990=100. The figures for weekly mortgage applications and interest rates are available in Haver's SURVEYW database.
| MBA Mortgage Applications (SA, 3/16/90=100) | 06/13/14 | 06/06/14 | 05/30/14 | Y/Y% | 2013 | 2012 | 2011 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Market Index | 351.6 | 387.1 | 350.8 | -45.8 | 616.6 | 813.8 | 572.3 |
| Purchase | 178.6 | 187.5 | 171.6 | -15.1 | 197.5 | 187.8 | 182.6 |
| Refinancing | 1,334.0 | 1,528.9 | 1,377.4 | -58.4 | 3,070.0 | 4,505.0 | 2,858.4 |
| 15-Year Mortgage Effective Interest Rate (%) | 3.54 | 3.49 | 3.41 | 3.56 (6/13) |
3.42 | 3.25 | 3.97 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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