Global| Oct 07 2016U.S. Payroll Increase Eases; Unemployment Rate Ticks Higher
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The job market is settling onto a path of moderate improvement. Nonfarm payroll employment increased 156,000 (1.7% y/y) during September following revised gains of 167,000 and 252,000 during the prior two months. These where reported [...]
The job market is settling onto a path of moderate improvement. Nonfarm payroll employment increased 156,000 (1.7% y/y) during September following revised gains of 167,000 and 252,000 during the prior two months. These where reported as 151,000 and 275,000 last month. A 168,000 rise in employment had been expected in the Action Economics Forecast Survey. Growth in payrolls was limited to the construction and private service sectors last month. From the household survey, the unemployment rate ticked up to 5.0%, its highest level since April. A 4.9% rate had been expected. The overall unemployment rate, including marginally attached and those working part-time for economic reasons held steady at 9.7%. Average hourly earnings rose an expected 0.2% (2.6% y/y).
The labor market data are contained in Haver's USECON database. Detailed figures are in the EMPL and LABOR databases. The expectations figure is in the AS1REPNA database.
| Employment: (SA, M/M Change, 000s) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y | 2015 | 2014 | 2013 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Payroll Employment | 156 | 167 | 252 | 1.7 | 2.1% | 1.9% | 1.6% |
| Previous | -- | 151 | 275 | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Manufacturing | -13 | -16 | 2 | -0.4 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 0.8 |
| Construction | 23 | -5 | 16 | 3.4 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 3.7 |
| Private Service-Producing | 157 | 169 | 207 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Government | -11 | 23 | 31 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.0 | -0.3 |
| Average Weekly Hours - Private Sector | 34.4 | 34.3 | 34.4 | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.5 | 34.5 |
| Private Sector Average Hourly Earnings (%) | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.4 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 2.1 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 5.0 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 6.2 | 7.4 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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