Global| Dec 28 2018U.S. Pending Home Sales Decline Again, Reaching Lowest since Mid-2014
Summary
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales fell 0.7% in November the second consecutive decline and the seventh in the eleven months so far this year. These sales are thus off 7.7% y/y, and at 101.4 in [...]
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales fell 0.7% in November the second consecutive decline and the seventh in the eleven months so far this year. These sales are thus off 7.7% y/y, and at 101.4 in November (2001=100), the index is 10.3% below the peak in April 2016. It is also the lowest since 101.3 in June 2014.
The November decline in pending home sales nationwide included a mix by region. Sales in the West recovered 2.8% after their October drop of 8.9% and were off 12.2% from a year ago. Those in the Northeast grew 2.7% in November after a slim 0.3% rise in October; they were down 3.5% from November 2017. The South and the Midwest both had month-on-month declines in November, the South by 2.7% (-7.4% y/y) and the Midwest, 2.3% (-7.0% y/y)
The pending home sales index measures sales at the time the contract for an existing home is signed, analogous to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity parallels the level of closed existing home sales in the following two months. The series dates back to 2001, and the data are available in Haver's PREALTOR database.
| Pending Home Sales (SA, 2001=100) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y % | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 101.4 | 102.1 | 104.8 | -7.7 | 109.0 | 109.8 | 108.8 |
| Northeast | 95.1 | 92.6 | 92.3 | -3.5 | 97.2 | 96.4 | 90.8 |
| Midwest | 98.1 | 100.4 | 102.2 | -7.0 | 104.8 | 107.4 | 107.1 |
| South | 115.7 | 118.9 | 120.2 | -7.4 | 123.8 | 122.9 | 123.1 |
| West | 87.2 | 84.8 | 93.1 | -12.2 | 99.6 | 102.4 | 102.2 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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