Global| Dec 27 2017U.S. Pending Home Sales Edge Higher in November
Summary
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales increased 0.2% (0.8% y/y) during November to an index level of 109.5 (2001=100). This followed their 3.5% jump in October. Sales were 3.6% below their recent [...]
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reported that pending home sales increased 0.2% (0.8% y/y) during November to an index level of 109.5 (2001=100). This followed their 3.5% jump in October. Sales were 3.6% below their recent peak in April 2016.
Sales changes were mixed by region in November. Those in the Northeast rose 4.1% (1.1% y/y) to an index level of 98.9, after edging up 0.5% in October. In the Midwest, they were up 0.4% (0.8% y/y) to 105.8, following October's 2.4% advance. In contrast, sales slowed in the South by 0.4% (2.5% y/y) to 123.1, thus pausing after October's 7.4% surge. And in the West, sales were down 1.8% (-2.3% y/y) to 100.4 after inching down 0.1% in October. The widely varying index levels themselves indicate that home sales trends are hardly standard across the country; sales in the South have historically been more vigorous than elsewhere, but relative strength otherwise shifts back and forth among the other regions
The pending home sales index measures home sales when the sales contract is signed, analogous to the Census Bureau's new home sales data. In contrast, the National Association of Realtors' existing home sales data are recorded when the sale is closed. In developing the pending home sales index, the NAR found that the level of monthly sales contract activity parallels the level of closed existing home sales in the following two months. The series dates back to 2001, and the data are available in Haver's PREALTOR database.
| Pending Home Sales (SA, 2001=100) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y % | 2016 | 2015 | 2014 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total | 109.5 | 109.3 | 105.6 | 0.8 | 109.8 | 108.8 | 101.2 |
| Northeast | 98.9 | 95.0 | 94.5 | 1.1 | 96.3 | 90.7 | 83.9 |
| Midwest | 105.8 | 105.4 | 102.9 | 0.8 | 107.3 | 107.1 | 100.3 |
| South | 123.1 | 123.6 | 115.1 | 2.5 | 122.8 | 123.0 | 115.5 |
| West | 100.4 | 102.2 | 102.3 | -2.3 | 102.5 | 102.4 | 93.1 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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