Global| Oct 29 2013U.S. PPI Edges 0.1% Lower in September; Core Prices Up 0.1%
Summary
The producer price index for finished goods was a mixed bag in September with only a modest change in total, which eased 0.1% (+ 0.3% y/y) following August's 0.3% increase. Consensus expectations looked for a 0.2% rise. Prices [...]
The producer price index for finished goods was a mixed bag in September with only a modest change in total, which eased 0.1% (+ 0.3% y/y) following August's 0.3% increase. Consensus expectations looked for a 0.2% rise. Prices excluding food & energy rose 0.1% in September (1.2% y/y) after being unchanged in August; forecasts looked for a 0.1% gain.
Food prices turned down 1.0% (+1.5% y/y) after August's 0.6% rise. Fresh and dry vegetables reversed a surge in August with a 17.9% plunge in September, but were still up 29.1% y/y. Most meats, including beef, chicken and turkey, and dairy were also down in the latest month. Energy prices were up 0.5% in September, which, given a second consecutive strong move in the year-ago month, resulted in a year-on-year drop of drop of 2.8%. Gasoline prices paused after their 2.6% rise in August with a 0.1% decline in September and were a sizable 9.8% below September 2012. Residential natural gas prices rose 1.0% in September after falling in both July and August; they were up 8.4% y/y. Residential electric power prices extended a steady trend of 0.2% m/m increases to a fifth month and were up +2.7% y/y. By contrast, home heating oil prices rebounded in September by 3.4%, but remained 6.0% below September 2012.
Finished consumer goods prices excluding foods rose 0.1% (+1.3% y/y), including the energy price upturn. Finished consumer goods prices excluding food & energy fell 0.1% (1.5% y/y) after being unchanged in August. Within the components, women's apparel prices rose 0.9% in September and were up 3.1% y/y, while men's apparel prices fell 0.6% m/m and were down 0.2% y/y. Furniture prices were largely flat m/m and up 1.8% y/y, while household appliance prices were also flat in the month and down 0.6% y/y and home electronic equipment, also unchanged on the month, was down 2.3% y/y. Passenger car prices rose 0.3% m/m and were off 1.4% y/y. Capital equipment prices rose 0.3% in September (+0.9% y/y) after easing 0.1% in August.
Intermediate goods prices edged up 0.1% m/m (-0.5% y/y) after being unchanged in July and August; core prices were also up 0.1% (+0.9% y/y) after increasing 0.2% in August. Intermediate foods and feeds rose 0.3% in September (-1.6% y/y) while intermediate energy goods prices increased 0.3%; these were down 4.3% y/y. Crude goods prices turned up 0.5% last month (+0.5% y/y) after August's 2.7% drop, but the September advance was all in energy prices, which rose 2.0% (+9.7% y/y). Crude foodstuffs and feedstuffs were off another 0.4% m/m (-4.2% y/y) and crude goods core prices excluding food & energy fell 1.0% m/m (-6.4% y/y).
The PPI data are contained in Haver's USECON database with further detail in PPI and PPIR. The expectations figures are available in the AS1REPNA database.
| Producer Price Index (%) | Sep | Aug | Jul | Sep Y/Y | 2012 | 2011 | 2010 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finished Goods | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 1.9 | 6.0 | 4.2 |
| Less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 1.2 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 |
| Foods | -1.0 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 6.3 | 3.9 |
| Energy | 0.5 | 0.8 | -0.2 | 0.7 | -0.2 | 15.5 | 13.5 |
| Intermediate Goods | 0.1 | 0.0 | 0.0 | -0.5 | 0.5 | 9.0 | 6.4 |
| Less Food & Energy | 0.1 | 0.2 | -0.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 6.2 | 4.3 |
| Crude Goods | 0.5 | -2.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | -3.3 | 17.4 | 21.3 |
| Less Food & Energy | -1.0 | -0.4 | -0.3 | -6.4 | -5.2 | 18.5 | 32.5 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
More Economy in Brief
