Global| Aug 20 2002U.S. Trade Deficit Improved in June
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The U.S. foreign trade deficit improved slightly in June, about as expected, versus a record May deficit that was deepened slightly. Trade deficits in 2Q02 ran at a $444.6B annual rate versus a $373.3B rate in 2Q01. Exports rose [...]
The U.S. foreign trade deficit improved slightly in June, about as expected, versus a record May deficit that was deepened slightly.
Trade deficits in 2Q02 ran at a $444.6B annual rate versus a $373.3B rate in 2Q01.
Exports rose strongly for the third month this year. Capital goods (-6.4% y/y) and nonauto consumer goods (-2.4% y/y) were strong as were exports of food (6.2% y/y).
Imports rose just moderately as industrial supplies and food imports fell. Imports of capital goods (-1.4% y/y) and nonauto consumer goods (10.0% y/y) were strong.
The refiner's acquisition cost of imported crude oil fell slightly in June to $23.71 from $24.29 in May and from $23.95 in June 2001. Prices rose in July and August.
| Foreign Trade | June | May | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trade Deficit | $37.2B | $37.8B | $30.8B(6/01) | $358.3B | $378.7B | $262.2B |
| Exports - Goods & Services | 1.7% | 0.8% | -2.8% | -6.2% | 11.2% | 2.6% |
| Imports - Goods & Services | 0.5% | 2.0% | 3.5% | -6.0% | 18.3% | 10.9% |
by Tom Moeller August 20, 2002
Chain store sales fell for the second consecutive week, continuing a very checkered performance during the last 2-3 months according to the BTM-UBSW survey.
Sales so far in August are down 0.6% versus the average for July which rose only 0.3% from June.
During the last five years there has been a 61% correlation between the year-to-year percent change in monthly chain store sales and the change in GAF retail sales.
| BTM-UBSW (SA, 1977=100) | 8/17/02 | 8/10/02 | Y/Y | 2001 | 2000 | 1999 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Weekly Retail Chain Store Sales | 410.0 | 413.1 | 1.8% | 2.1% | 3.4% | 6.7% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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