Global| Oct 16 2008U.S. Weekly Initial Jobless Insurance Claims Fell But Still Near Cycle High
Summary
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 16,000 in the week ended last Saturday to 461,000 from the prior week's 477,000.The four-week moving average barely changed from 482,500 to 483,250 (+50.2% y/y). The Labor Department [...]
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell 16,000 in the week ended last Saturday to 461,000 from the prior week's 477,000.The four-week moving average barely changed from 482,500 to 483,250 (+50.2% y/y). The Labor Department estimates that 12,000 claims in the latest week were due to Hurricane Ike in Texas, less than the hurricane effects the two weeks before of 17,000 (10/4) and 45,000 (9/27).
Continuing claims for unemployment insurance during the October 4 week rose 40,000 following an upwardly revised 68,000 increase during the prior period. The four-week average of claims rose to 3,632,000, the highest level since July 2003. Continuing claims provide some indication of workers' ability to find employment and they lag the initial claims figures by one week.
Claims under the new "EUC" program, Emergency Unemployment Compensation, enacted during the summer, reached 1,345,375 in the September 27 week, up 278,298 from September 20. These people have exhausted all regular benefits and are granted an additional 13 weeks while they continue to job-hunt.
The insured rate of unemployment edged up to 2.8% in the October 4 week, a cycle high and the highest since exactly the same week in 2003. The high in that recessionary period was 3.0%, reached in late June 2003.
| Unemployment Insurance (000s) | 10/11/08 | 10/04/08 | 09/27/08 | Y/Y | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Initial Claims | 461 | 477 | 499 | 36.4% | 322 | 313 | 331 |
| Continuing Claims | -- | 3,711 | 3,671 | 45.6 | 2,552 | 2,459 | 2,662 |
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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