Global| Nov 26 2007UK GDP Grows 3%
Summary
UK GDP slipped in the current quarter to a growth rate of 3% from 3.3% in Q2. And while it is a touch below its year/year pace of late it is also a touch above its five year range. Private consumption was strong in Q3 at an annualized [...]
UK GDP slipped in the current quarter to a growth rate of 3% from 3.3% in Q2. And while it is a touch below its year/year pace of late it is also a touch above its five year range. Private consumption was strong in Q3 at an annualized quarterly pace of 4.1%. Above last quarter’s pace and well above the five-year trend. Public spending at 1.2% was slow. Capital spending at 6.7% was a sharp rebound but the year/year pace is slowing. Exports and imports each were up sharply on the quarter. Their past trends are hard to compare due to special factors in the historic pattern. Domestic demand remains solid in the UK. At 4.7% the quarter was up sharply and the year/year erosion to a pace of 3.5% was mild and is still above the five-year average. On balance GDP trends seem to be holding up well. It is the path of inflation that remains most in doubt, especially with oil prices flaring. Housing is getting decidedly weaker but there is no evidence of any knock-on impact on GDP.
| UK GDP | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Consumption | Capital Formation | Domestic | ||||||
| GDP | Private | Public | Total | Housing | Exports | Imports | Demand | |
| % change Q/Q | ||||||||
| Q3-07 | 3.0% | 4.1% | 1.2% | 6.7% | #N/A | 11.5% | 16.7% | 4.7% |
| Q2-07 | 3.3% | 3.0% | 1.4% | -3.7% | 1.7% | 0.6% | -1.6% | 2.6% |
| Q1-07 | 3.2% | 2.7% | 1.9% | 4.4% | 10.5% | 0.9% | 4.6% | 4.2% |
| Q4-06 | 3.3% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 13.7% | -9.7% | 0.9% | -1.8% | 2.4% |
| % change Yr/Yr | ||||||||
| Q3-07 | 3.2% | 3.5% | 1.8% | 5.1% | #N/A | 3.4% | 4.2% | 3.5% |
| Q2-07 | 3.1% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 6.2% | 3.7% | -12.4% | -9.9% | 3.6% |
| Q1-07 | 3.1% | 3.2% | 1.2% | 9.0% | 6.6% | -10.2% | -7.1% | 3.8% |
| Q4-06 | 3.2% | 2.6% | 1.9% | 10.3% | 6.4% | -2.4% | -0.6% | 3.6% |
| 5-Yrs | 2.8% | 2.7% | 2.6% | 4.4% | #N/A | 4.0% | 4.7% | 3.0% |
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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