Global| Feb 20 2008UK Output Trends Decline as Orders Hover Showing Small Persisting Gains
Summary
The UK’s CBI report is a survey which reports purchaser type survey data as net measures (net better Vs worse responses). The report shows that output trends, while still showing expansion, have moved substantially lower. Order trends [...]
The UK’s CBI report is a survey which reports purchaser type
survey data as net measures (net better Vs worse responses). The report
shows that output trends, while still showing expansion, have moved
substantially lower. Order trends have been hovering; they show small
net positive readings. This month the order series even ticked higher
to a net +3 from +2 in January. Output volume expected in the next
three months has improved a bit too. At +11 in February it is up from
+9 in January and +3 in December. Still, it is a reading that is still
below its 12-month average of 14. But prices are the real headline of
this report. Price pressures continue to rise. At +22 they are
accelerating and are above their 12-month average of 18. Prices for the
next 3 months stand in the 95th percentile of their range. This is
stronger than for orders or export orders where the rankings show them
in the top 79th to 88th percentile of their ranges. Output is only in
the top 30% of its range. While the BOE is cutting rates the output and
orders barometers in this report are still firm but price expectations
are pushing their limits.
| UK Industrial Volume Data CBI Survey | |||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reported: | Jan-08 | Dec-07 | Nov-07 | Oct-07 | 12-mo Avg | Pcntle | Max | Min | Range |
| Total Orders | 2 | 2 | 8 | -6 | 4 | 86% | 9 | -40 | 49 |
| Export Orders | -4 | 2 | -4 | -9 | -3 | 87% | 3 | -50 | 53 |
| Stocks: Final Goods | 7 | 14 | 14 | 14 | 9 | 32% | 26 | -2 | 28 |
| Output Volume: Next 3M | 9 | 3 | 9 | 10 | 15 | 66% | 28 | -28 | 56 |
| Averages Prices for Next 3M | 21 | 15 | 21 | 14 | 18 | 93% | 25 | -30 | 55 |
| From end 2000 | |||||||||
Robert Brusca
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media. Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.
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