Haver Analytics
Haver Analytics
Global| Dec 04 2007

UK Sector Downdraft Still Seems to be in Play Waiting for the New Services Numbers, However ...

Summary

The NTC sector indexes for the UK show that all three main sectors have been losing traction. The new services sector observation is not yet released so the table below reflects changes through October. But for MFG and Construction [...]


The NTC sector indexes for the UK show that all three main sectors have been losing traction. The new services sector observation is not yet released so the table below reflects changes through October. But for MFG and Construction there are new observations available for November. Through November, these sectors show a trend of weakness that has been moderated in November by a run up in MFG that still leaves that sector short of its September level. Construction continued to fall and it fell hard in November. In October services took a large fall leaving it in the bottom 40 percent of its range. Construction is now weaker in the lower third of its range. MFG is still in the top 35% of its range. We are eagerly awaiting the new services observation to see if that weakness remains in place or not.

MFG, Construction and Services PMI CIPS/NTC
  Monthly readings Change over: percentile
  Nov-07 Oct-07 Sep-07 3MO 6MO 12MO of range
MFG 54.32 57.41 60.25 -10.50 -3.69 -0.46 36.12
Construction 54.32 57.41 60.25 -10.50 -3.69 -0.46 36.12
Services* #N/A 53.08 56.69 -3.94 -4.17 -6.18 39.4
MFG range since January 1992; Construction Since April 1997 Services Since July 1996
*Services changes and ranking and stem from Oct-07 which is the most current date.
  • Robert A. Brusca is Chief Economist of Fact and Opinion Economics, a consulting firm he founded in Manhattan. He has been an economist on Wall Street for over 25 years. He has visited central banking and large institutional clients in over 30 countries in his career as an economist. Mr. Brusca was a Divisional Research Chief at the Federal Reserve Bank of NY (Chief of the International Financial markets Division), a Fed Watcher at Irving Trust and Chief Economist at Nikko Securities International. He is widely quoted and appears in various media.   Mr. Brusca holds an MA and Ph.D. in economics from Michigan State University and a BA in Economics from the University of Michigan. His research pursues his strong interests in non aligned policy economics as well as international economics. FAO Economics’ research targets investors to assist them in making better investment decisions in stocks, bonds and in a variety of international assets. The company does not manage money and has no conflicts in giving economic advice.

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