Global| Dec 21 2005US 3Q GDP Revised Slightly Lower
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
US real GDP growth for 3Q was revised down slightly to 4.1% (AR) and fell short of Consensus expectations for no change to earlier estimate of 4.3% growth. A weakened estimate of domestic demand growth caused the downward revision. [...]
A weakened estimate of domestic demand growth caused the downward revision. Real PCE was lessened to 4.1% (3.8% y/y) from 4.3% growth and the strength in business fixed investment was lessened to 8.4% (8.3% y/y) from 8.7%. Lastly, growth in residential investment growth was dropped to 7.3% (7.2% y/y) from 8.4%.
The estimate of inventories contribution to GDP growth was unrevised at -0.4 percentage points but the drag from the foreign trade deficit was lessened as exports grew 2.5% (6.9% y/y).
Operating corporate profits are estimated to have declined 4.0% (+15.7% y/y) versus an initial estimate of a 3.4% decline. Financial sector earnings were reduced further and fell 20.5% (+5.4% y/y), crushed by three hurricanes. Profits of domestic nonfinancial corporations also were reduced and fell 1.1% (+18.6% y/y) versus the initial estimate of a slight 0.2% gain.
Shifting Data: A Challenge for Monetary Policy Makers from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco is available here.
Greenspan's Unconventional View of the Long-Run Inflation/Output Trade-off from the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis can be found here.
| Chained 2000$, % AR | 3Q '05 (Final) | 3Q '05 (Prelim.) | 2Q '05 | Y/Y | 2004 | 2003 | 2002 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| GDP | 4.1% | 4.3% | 3.3% | 3.6% | 4.2% | 2.7% | 1.6% |
| Inventory Effect | -0.4% | -0.4% | -2.1% | -0.7% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 0.4% |
| Final Sales | 4.6% | 4.7% | 5.6% | 4.3% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.2% |
| Foreign Trade Effect | -0.1% | -0.3% | 1.1% | 0.2% | -0.5% | -0.3% | -0.6% |
| Domestic Final Demand | 4.5% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 4.1% | 4.4% | 3.0% | 1.8% |
| Chained GDP Price Index | 3.3% | 3.0% | 2.6% | 2.9% | 2.6% | 2.0% | 1.7% |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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