Global| Dec 22 2003US Dollar Up This Month Versus Major Currency Index, Depressed Vs. Euro
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
The foreign exchange value of the US dollar versus major currencies has risen 2.5% since the early December low (-12.2% y/y). Roughly 50% of US foreign trade is with the countries in the major currency index. Since 1990 there has been [...]
The foreign exchange value of the US dollar versus major currencies has risen 2.5% since the early December low (-12.2% y/y). Roughly 50% of US foreign trade is with the countries in the major currency index.
Since 1990 there has been a 65% (inverse) correlation between the value of the dollar against major currencies and the y/y change in nonoil import prices.
Extreme dollar weakness against the Euro (17.4% of US trade) has been accompanied by lesser weakness against the yen (12.1% of trade) and sharp dollar improvement against the Canadian dollar (17.0% of trade).
Analysis from the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco of Japanese Foreign Exchange Intervention can be found here.
Against the Canadian dollar the US currency has rallied 2.5% this month but is down 14.1% y/y.
Versus the UK pound, the dollar has weakened appreciably, down 2.6% just this month. 4.4% of US trade is with Great Britain.
Against a broader basket of currencies the US dollar has fallen 1.3% this month (-8.5% y/y. The dollar has been flat-to-lower versus the Mexican peso (+10.0% y/y), the Chinese yuan (-0.04% y/y) and other Asian currencies. Over 40% of US foreign trade is denominated in these currencies.
| Exchange Rates | 12/18/03 | 12/31/02 | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
| US$ Major Currency Index (3/73=100) | 86.35 | 97.65 | -12.2% | 103.08 | 104.26 | 98.42 |
| Japan (Yen/US$) | 107.92 | 118.75 | -10.7% | 125.22 | 121.57 | 107.80 |
| European Monetary Union (US$/Euro) | 1.2376 | 1.0485 | 21.1% | 0.9454 | 0.8952 | 0.9232 |
| United Kingdom (US$/Pound) | 1.7673 | 1.6095 | 10.6% | 1.5025 | 1.4396 | 1.5156 |
| Exchange Rates | 12/18/03 | 12/31/02 | Y/Y | 2002 | 2001 | 2000 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US$ Major Currency Index (3/73=100) | 86.35 | 97.65 | -12.2% | 103.08 | 104.26 | 98.42 |
| Japan (Yen/US$) | 107.92 | 118.75 | -10.7% | 125.22 | 121.57 | 107.80 |
| European Monetary Union (US$/Euro) | 1.2376 | 1.0485 | 21.1% | 0.9454 | 0.8952 | 0.9232 |
| United Kingdom (US$/Pound) | 1.7673 | 1.6095 | 10.6% | 1.5025 | 1.4396 | 1.5156 |
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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