Global| Feb 01 2019Wholesale Inventories Grow While Sales Decline
Summary
Wholesale inventories increased 0.3% month-on-month (6.5% year-over-year) during November, following an upwardly revised 0.9% gain in October. The release of this data was delayed by the government shutdown. Wholesale sales declined [...]
Wholesale inventories increased 0.3% month-on-month (6.5% year-over-year) during November, following an upwardly revised 0.9% gain in October. The release of this data was delayed by the government shutdown.
Wholesale sales declined 0.6% during November (+4.0% y/y), the second consecutive monthly decline of this magnitude. October's reading was revised down from -0.2%. The Action Economics Forecast Survey looked for just a 0.1% decrease.
The inventory-to-sales (I/S) ratio at the wholesale level rose to 1.29, the fourth consecutive monthly gain. Still, the I/S ratio remains well below the cycle peak of 1.38 reached in February 2016.
The wholesale trade figures are available in Haver's USECON database. The expectations for sales are in the AS1REPNA database.
| Wholesale Sector - NAICS Classification (%) | Nov | Oct | Sep | Nov Y/Y | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Inventories | 0.3 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 2.2 | 1.3 |
| Sales | -0.6 | -0.6 | 0.1 | 4.0 | 7.4 | -1.3 | -4.9 |
| I/S Ratio | 1.29 | 1.28 | 1.27 | 1.26 (Nov '17) | 1.30 | 1.35 | 1.33 |
Gerald D. Cohen
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Gerald Cohen provides strategic vision and leadership of the translational economic research and policy initiatives at the Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise.
He has worked in both the public and private sectors focusing on the intersection between financial markets and economic fundamentals. He was a Senior Economist at Haver Analytics from January 2019 to February 2021. During the Obama Administration Gerald was Deputy Assistant Secretary for Macroeconomic Analysis at the U.S. Department of Treasury where he helped formulate and evaluate the impact of policy proposals on the U.S. economy. Prior to Treasury, he co-managed a global macro fund at Ziff Brothers Investments.
Gerald holds a bachelor’s of science from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and a Ph.D. in Economics from Harvard University and is a contributing author to 30-Second Money as well as a co-author of Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy.
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