Composite PMIs from S&P Improve

In October, only six reporters saw their composite PMI measures weaken compared to September. Two of those were large EMU economies, France and Spain. But in the EMU, there still was improvement compared to September. The U.S, U.K., and EMU average has the same reading value as in September. The overall average improved in October to 51.9 from 51.4 in September. The median overall reading also improved to 51.8 from 50.0. Still, there is a net decline for the overall average and median compared to August values. Some improvement month-to-month but not much overall: a one-month improvement, a two-month decline.

Sequentially, looking at average levels, over three months, six months and 12 months, there is little volatility in these readings. The average over three months is slightly stronger than the 12-month average while the median is slightly weaker over three months compared to 12-months.

The queue percentile standings tell a story of ongoing weakness. The standing of the average is at the 49.2 percentile, nearly on top of its four and one half year average. The median value is at its 48.3 percentile. Again, these two measures are below their respective multi-month medians but are also quite near to those medians. The BRIC countries (I exclude Russia so its actually a reading for the BICs) average is at a 69% standing.

There are 13 of 25 reporting jurisdictions that have a queue standing below their medians (below 50%). Among the 12 reporters whose standings are above 50%, the average standing is 64.1%. Among those below 50% the average standing is 35.4%. Interestingly, the performing economies have about 14 percentage points above their median while those that were not performing average about 14 percentage points below their medians.

The ‘Haves’ include the U.S., Italy Spain, Ireland, Italy, Brazil, Saudi Arabia, Singapore, Hong Kong, Ghana, Egypt, and Kenya. These are the countries with queue standings above their 50% mark. The ‘Have Nots’ include the EMU, Germany, France, the U.K., Sweden, Russia, Australia, the UAE, Japan, China, Zambia, Qatar, and Nigeria.

These two groups offer an interesting look at the bifurcation in global economics. The Big 4 EMU economies are split, but the largest two EMU economies are below 50% in ranking, helping to drag the EMU region below its 50% mark. A number of developed economics are on the underperforming list. The global economy remains a mixture of trends, but the average rank is close to 50%, its historic (4.5 year) mid-point. The economy, essentially, ‘is’ where it has been. There is little change signaled here.