Consumer Credit Expands Notably in January after Small December Increase
Summary
- Nonrevolving credit up 0.5% y/y in January.
- Revolving credit up 8.5% y/y.
Consumer credit rose $19.5 billion in January (2.5% y/y), after a (relatively) marginal $920 million increase in December; the December amount was revised from $1.5 billion reported before. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had expected a $9.0 billion increase in January. The ratio of consumer credit outstanding to disposable personal income was 24.39% in January after a very similar 24.38% in December and down very, very slightly from 24.45% in November.
Nonrevolving credit balances include secured and unsecured credit for big-ticket items, such as autos, mobile homes, trailers, durable goods and vacations; this total rose in January by $11.09 billion (0.5% y/y). Borrowing at banks fell 1.7% y/y, while borrowing at finance companies rose 6.9% y/y, that at credit unions was up 2.4% y/y and that at federal government lenders decreased 1.5% y/y.
Revolving credit outstanding rose $8.4 billion (8.5% y/y) in January, after a $2.6 billion (8.8% y/y) increase in December.
The value of student loans outstanding fell 2.1% in Q4 2023, while motor vehicle loans increase 3.8%.
The consumer credit figures from the Federal Reserve Board are break-adjusted and calculated by Haver Analytics. The breaks in the series in 2005, 2010 and 2015 are the result of the incorporation of data from the Census and the Survey of Finance Companies, as well as changes in the seasonal adjustment methodology. The consumer credit data are available in Haver’s USECON database. The Action Economics forecast figures are contained in the AS1REPNA database.
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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