Durable Goods Orders: Aircraft-Related Volatility
Summary
- New orders excluding aircraft were flat in January.
- But bookings for nondefense capital goods other than aircraft are perhaps picking up.
New orders for durable manufactured goods jumped 3.1% in January, notably firmer than the expected gain of 1.9% shown in Action Economics. However, the advance was heavily influenced by a surge in the transportation component, which in turn, reflected strong bookings for aircraft and parts (a naturally noisy area). Excluding the transportation component, new orders for durable goods were unchanged. The latest reading outside of transportation continued a pattern of modest shifts that has been evident for the past three years, with the monthly ups and downs leaving only the slightest of upward drifts (notice the 12-month average change of 0.1 percent).
While new orders ex-transportation were unimpressive in January, one element of the report offered encouragement. Specifically, new orders for nondefense capital goods other than aircraft rose 0.8% in January, marking the third consecutive monthly advance. The recent performance has lifted the 12-month average change to 0.2 percent, up from essentially zero in the middle of last year. This series provides insight into capital spending plans by businesses, and the latest readings suggest some stirring in business investment.
Possible improvement in business activity also was evident in unfilled orders for nondefense capital goods other than aircraft, which rose 0.4% in January after an average increase of 0.2% in the prior two months. This series, in contrast to other most other elements of this report, changes slowly and clearly shows underlying trends. While recent results cannot be described as brisk, the downward drift than began in the latter part of 2022 may be starting to turn.
Manufacturers’ orders and shipments of durable and nondurable goods, along with unfilled orders and inventories, are compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau. They are available in Haver’s USECON database. The Action Economics forecast data are in the AS1REPNA database.
Michael J. Moran
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Before joining Haver Analytics in 2025, Michael J. Moran was the chief economist of Daiwa Capital Markets America Inc. He was responsible for preparing the firm’s economic forecast and interest rate outlook. He traveled frequently to visit the clients of Daiwa Capital Markets and wrote weekly economic commentary. Mr. Moran also was involved in the flux of financial markets, as he spent a portion of each day on Daiwa’s trading floor interpreting economic statistics and Federal Reserve activity for traders and salespeople. Mr. Moran is quoted frequently in the financial press, and he appears regularly on cable news shows. He also has published articles in several journals and periodicals. Before joining Daiwa Capital Markets America, Mr. Moran worked as an economist at the Federal Reserve Board in Washington, D.C. where he analyzed a broad range of issues dealing with the financial sector of the economy and regularly briefed the Board of Governors. He was on the faculty of Pennsylvania State University from 1979 to 1980 and taught on a part-time basis at George Washington University from 1980 to 1987.
Mr. Moran received his Ph.D. in economics from Pennsylvania State University in 1980 and a B.S. in business administration from the University of Bridgeport in 1975. He was a CFA charter holder from 2002 until 2016.
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