EMU Unemployment Rate Continues to Slide Sideways

Globally unemployment rates are continuing to move sideways or falling but the main exception is the United States with some recent increase in unemployment; unemployment in the U.S. has recently picked up from its cycle low in the wake of the Covid recession and government policies to deal with it.

In the European Monetary Union, the unemployment rate has had its low and it's been stuck here for several months. Despite some disquieting and weak economic data for the monetary union, unemployment has stayed at an extremely low level- its all-time low.

Among the 12 countries listed in the table, 5 of them have higher unemployment rates month-to-month with only Italy seeing the unemployment rate fall in October compared to a month ago. Countries experiencing a rise in their local unemployment rates are Finland, France, Luxembourg, Ireland, and Greece.

In terms of the monetary union aggregates, total unemployment continues to fall in the union as a whole over 12 months, over six months, and over three months.

Unemployment rates fell in only three of the EMU countries listed in the table one month ago. Two months ago, in August, unemployment rates fell in seven EMU member countries, while unemployment rose month-to-month in only three. The impetus for unemployment rates to drop is running out of steam while the list of countries experiencing higher rates of unemployment is rising.

Over broader periods, trends are less clear as there are the same number of countries with unemployment rates falling over three months as there are over six months. Over 12 months, there's one more country that experiences a decline in its unemployment rate compared to the count over three- and six-month horizons. Over three and six months, unemployment falls compared to the previous period in four countries; over 12 months compared to 12 months ago, unemployment rate falls in five countries. So the process of unemployment reduction has slowed then stabilized, based on comparing these trends.

The overall trend as well as the trend for countries in the EMU as well as for the U.S. and Japan shows mostly tempered unemployment rates with unemployment falling or low but with nine showing 12-month increases. Finland and the U.K. show the sharpest 12-month increases. However, global PMI data, for example, and other global data, continue to show more economic weakness. So far that weakness has not permeated the job market that continues to be strong globally, despite some -so far- not very significant backtracking.