FIBER: Industrial Commodity Price Index Improves
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Price movement is mixed amongst categories.
- Metals & lumber prices dominate rise.
- Oil & cotton prices decline.
The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) rose 1.0% during the four weeks ended June 23 to the highest level in six weeks. The index remained down 13.6% y/y as factory sector production fell 0.3% y/y through May, though output has firmed so far this year.
Prices in the metals group led the recent improvement with a 4.7% rise (-7.8% y/y) in the last four weeks. Tin prices jumped 15.5% (-5.5% y/y) and copper scrap prices increased 6.6% (-3.4% y/y). Lead prices rose 6.1% (7.5% y/y) while the cost of zinc improved 2.4% in four weeks (-33.7% y/y). Steel scrap prices rose 1.4% in the last four weeks (2.4% y/y). To the downside, aluminum prices fell 2.5% in four weeks (-11.6% y/y).
The miscellaneous group price index rose 1.2% (-15.6% y/y) during the last four weeks. Framing lumber prices increased 6.2% in four weeks (-40.2% y/y) but the cost of natural rubber fell 3.1% (-11.6% y/y) in four weeks.
Offsetting these gains, prices in the crude oil & benzene group fell 3.2% (-26.2% y/y) in the last four weeks. The cost of West Texas Intermediate crude oil declined 2.1% in four weeks to $70.99 per barrel and fell by roughly one-third y/y, while the price of the petro-chemical benzene weakened 11.8% (-53.3% y/y). Excluding crude oil & benzene, the industrial commodity price index rose 1.2% (-12.2% y/y) over the last four weeks.
Prices in the textile group weakened 0.6% during the last four weeks and fell 8.6% y/y. Cotton prices declined 3.9% and weakened 37.9% y/y. The cost of burlap improved 0.7% (-12.7% y/y) in the last four weeks.
The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's DAILY, WEEKLY, USECON and CMDTY databases.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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