FIBER: Industrial Commodity Price Index Increases
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Crude oil prices rise.
- Rubber & lumber prices continue to strengthen.
- Steel, aluminum and lead prices decline.
The Industrial Materials Price Index from the Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) rose 1.1% during the four weeks ended March 8, 2024, though prices remained 1.0% below where they were one year earlier. Current prices remained moderately higher than their low in the third week of December. The index was 21.1% below the cycle peak in the second week of March 2022. During that period of time, U.S. factory output has been unchanged.
Prices in the crude oil & benzene group increased 1.9% in four weeks and 2.0% y/y. The cost of crude oil rose 7.2% (1.2% y/y) to $78.97 per barrel. It was the highest price since early-November and up from a low of $70.42 in the third week of December. Offsetting this increase, the cost of benzene fell 3.6% in the last four weeks but rose 8.4% y/y. The FIBER price index excluding crude oil rose 0.7% (-1.2% y/y) during the last four weeks.
Prices in the miscellaneous group increased 2.4% during the last four weeks but eased 0.3% y/y. Rubber prices surged 9.5% and by more than one-third y/y. The cost of framing lumber rose 3.8% in four weeks (-6.8% y/y).
Also rising, prices in the textile group improved 1.3% (2.8% y/y) in the latest four weeks and have been rising since their low in the second week of November. Cotton prices increased 7.3% (11.8% y/y) in the last four weeks while the cost of burlap improved 1.8% (9.3% y/y) in four weeks.
Offsetting these increases, prices in the metals group fell 1.1% (-7.1% y/y) in the latest four- week period. Steel scrap prices declined 10.1% (-18.1% y/y) in four weeks while lead costs weakened 3.3%, down 2.2% y/y. Aluminum prices eased 0.3% (-5.7% y/y). Offsetting these declines, tin prices rose 6.1% in four weeks and strengthened 11.4% y/y. Copper scrap prices improved 1.9% in four weeks (-4.4% y/y) while the cost of zinc rose 0.4% (-19.7% y/y).
The Foundation for International Business and Economic Research (FIBER) develops economic measurement techniques as applied to business cycles and inflation in the U.S. and other market economies. The commodity price data can be found in Haver's DAILY, WEEKLY, USECON and CMDTY databases.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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