Germany: GfK Climate Gauge Sags Again

This month in my presentation of the German GfK consumer climate index, I extend the chart back historically to make a point about German climate and how strong and steady it used to be compared to what it has become. The components of economic expectations, income expectations, continue to fluctuate about the same as in the past; however, the propensity to buy is more variable and the climate gauge itself is decidedly weaker and more variable than it used to be when Germany was the ironclad economy of Europe something that it can claim to be no more.

Post Covid vs. Pre-Covid (and Post Ukraine Invasion) Also, since Covid, the correlation of the economic situation to Climate has gotten slightly stronger perhaps suggesting that the German social welfare system has been under pressure since economics assessments are more strongly correlated with economic conditions post-Covid. And Income and Economic expectations are much more highly correlated. There is a weakening connection between the propensity to buy and economic conditions post-Covid and a weakened link between the propensity to buy and income expectations. The reduced link between income and spending suggests a more cautious public and higher savings as does the weakened link to income. The latter may reflect more social welfare dependency. Overall, the correlation between the components and the Climate gauge are still relatively the same before and after Covid, with only economic expectations showing a slightly tighter correlation.

Pre-Covid/Post-Covid Averages The average readings (pre-2020), of course, are all lower post-Covid than pre-Covid. Because some average readings are positive, and others negative, it is difficult to look at the change or ratio of the average after vs. before, as a gauge for comparison. Instead, I have calculated each average, pre-Covid and post-Covid and ranked each of them as if they were observations in the full sample of historic observations. Put that way the average post-Covid Climate reading is 36 ranking positions lower than it was pre-Covid. That is a drop in ranking positions of about 13%. The economy and buying climates are each lower by 22 places. But the post-Covid income average reading falls a very sharp 63 places on the ranking gauge. Income expectations have been hit very hard in the post-Covid period more so that economic assessments or spending propensity.

Current Results In March, the German climate gauge from GfK has slipped from -22.6 to -24.7. It is at an 8.2 percentile standing in its historic queue of data, making the March reading weaker than this only about 8% of the time. In contrast, the components which are up to date through February show an improvement in economic expectations from January to February and a slip in income expectations from -1.1 to -5.4. There's also a slip in the propensity to buy from -8.4 to -11.1. These components have standings and their historic queues of data at the 39th percentile for economic expectations, nearly the 25th percentile for income expectations and about the 29th percentile for the propensity to buy. The median for these gauges would occur at their 50th percentile so all of them are significantly below their historic medians on data back to January 2002.

The German economy is not only weak, but it's been weakening again on a mild gradient after having shown some tendency to stabilize and even to improve. Political instability has married economic weakness throughout Europe and recent German elections now put the country in a position perhaps to deal with some of its issues if the new government is able.

Other Europe The table also presents consumer confidence statistics for Italy, France, and the United Kingdom. French and U.K. statistics are up to date through February; Italian statistics are up to date through January. Each of these readings shows some recent improvement. For Italy and France, the improvement is more ongoing whereas for the U.K. the improvement is very short term as the February reading is lower than readings for November and December; February in the U.K. constitutes an improvement only from January.

The queue percentile standings (or count percentile standings) for Italy, France, and the U.K. have those metrics at the 79th percentile for Italy, the 39th percentile for France, and the 29th percentile for the U.K. These percentile standings are quite similar to the standings for the components of the GfK index but certainly nothing is as weak as the GfK climate headline for Germany. And that has been the case for some time. Italy is an exception to everything showing above-median and relatively strong readings for consumer confidence at the 79th percentile level.

Summing up Europe continues to be beset with weak growth, political issues, of course, a war on its doorstep, and now, a new president in the United States that is shaking things up considerably, aiming at resetting the international trading system as well as long-standing U.S. and European security arrangements. All of this could have unsettling effects on confidence, moving ahead. It's going to be something we will have to watch carefully. President Donald Trump is of the opinion that Europe has been a relative free-rider on U.S. military spending. He is looking for Europe to take more control of its own defenses and to spend more money so the U.S. can spend less money. I don't think there's much question about whether or not this is true. However, there is a considerable question about whether or not these changes are going to be better for Europe or for the U.S. Certainly if the U.S. reduces its security commitments to Europe it's going to have less influence on European affairs, although many in the U.S. think that the U.S. has not gotten much for the money it has spent on U.S./European security - not the kind of consideration it should have for what it has provided. The jury is out on that, and only time will tell if these relationships are significantly reset and to whose advantage. The future lies before us, and it is going to develop differently so be prepared.