Initial Unemployment Claims Fell—Lowest Since January
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Claims unexpectedly fell to 198,000 in the week ended October 14.
- This is the lowest weekly level since January 21.
- Continuing claims edged up to their highest level since July 8, but remain low historically.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance fell to 198,000 (unchanged y/y) in the week ended October 14, their lowest level since January 21, down 13,000 from an upwardly revised 211,000 in the previous week (initially 209,000). The four-week moving average fell to 205,750 from 206,750 in the previous week (revised up slightly from 206,250). The Action Economics Forecast Survey had looked for 212,000 to have been filed in the week ended October 14. Initial claims have been on a clear downtrend since the middle of this year.
The total number of insured unemployment that are continuing to receive benefits, known as “continued weeks claimed” or “continuing claims,” was 1.734 million in the week ended October 7, up from an upwardly revised 1.705 million in the previous week (initially 1.702 million). This figure has risen gradually over recent weeks but remains around the level that existed in the year prior to the pandemic lockdown and so, does not seem to be indicating any meaningful softening of labor markets.
The insured unemployment rate, that is, the number of recipients in the latest available week as a percentage of covered employment, was unchanged at 1.2% in the week ended October 7 with the previous week’s reading revised up 0.1%-point. The all-time low for this rate was 0.9%, which was recorded in August, September and early October of last year. These data extend back to 1971.
The insured unemployment rates in regular programs vary widely across the individual states and territories. In the week ended September 30, the highest rates were in Hawaii (2.29%), New Jersey (2.09%), California (2.00%), New York (1.59%) and Massachusetts (1.58%). The lowest rates were in South Dakota (0.17%), North Dakota (0.26%), Kentucky (0.31%), Kansas (0.32%) and Virginia (0.34%). Other large state rates include Ohio (0.67%), Pennsylvania (1.32%), Illinois (1.34%), Texas (0.99%) and Florida (0.44%). These state data are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims go back to 1967 and are contained in Haver’s WEEKLY database; they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, in the AS1REPNA database.
Sandy Batten
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia. Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan. In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association. Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.
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