Moderate Increase in Unemployment Insurance Claims
Summary
- Initial claims up 7,000 in March 25 week, continuing claims up 4,000 in March 18 week.
- Insured unemployment rate at 1.2% for fourth straight week.
- Highest state rate in New Jersey, lowest in Virginia.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance were 198,000 in the week ended March 25 (+15.8% y/y), an increase of 7,000 from the previous week’s 191,000, which was unrevised. The Action Economics Forecast Survey expected 195,000 for the March 25 number. The four-week moving average of initial claims through the March 25 week was 198,250, up 2,000 from the prior week’s average.
The number of continuing weeks claimed in the March 18 week was 1.689 million, an increase of 4,000 from the prior week and up 12.2% y/y. The four-week moving average was 1,691,750, up from 1,681,750 in the four weeks ended March 11.
In the week ended March 18, the insured rate of unemployment was yet again 1.2%, the fourth consecutive week at that level following two weeks at 1.1%. This rate is thus still hovering between 1.1% and 1.2%, where it has been since mid-November and remains just above the record low range of 0.9%-to-1.0% in place from April through October of last year.
In the week ended March 11, the total number of continued weeks claimed in all unemployment insurance programs was 1,906,497, a decrease of 1.7% (+7.4% y/y) from 1,938,752 in the prior week. This total includes federal employees, newly discharged veterans, extended benefits and other specialized programs and is not seasonally adjusted. Claims in the Pandemic Unemployment Assistance program and Pandemic Emergency Unemployment Compensation are no longer included in the main Labor Department press release, as both programs have expired.
The insured rates of unemployment in regular programs vary across states. The highest insured unemployment rates in the week ending March 11 were in New Jersey (2.69%), Rhode Island (2.42%), Massachusetts (2.34%), California (2.33 %) and Minnesota (2.21%). The lowest rates were in Virginia (0.32%), Kansas (0.35%), Florida and Alabama (0.40%), North Carolina (0.41%) and Tennessee (0.44%). Other major state rates include Illinois (1.99%), New York (1.90%, Pennsylvania (1.66%) and Texas (0.96%). These state rates are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims going back to 1967 are contained in Haver's WEEKLY database, and they are summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey, carried in the AS1REPNA database.
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
