Philadelphia Fed Nonmanufacturing Index Improves in January
by:Tom Moeller
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Despite m/m gain, level remains negative.
- New orders, sales & employment strengthen.
- Prices paid weaken further.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reported that its index of regional nonmanufacturing activity rose to -6.5 during January from -12.8 in December. It was the sixth consecutive negative reading, indicating a decline in the region’s level of activity. At the company level, the index improved to 12.7 in January, a four-month high, from 8.0 in December.
The new orders & shipments indexes both rose sharply. The new orders index increased to 10.8, the highest level since March of last year following five months in negative territory. A higher 30.7% of respondents reported a rise in new orders while a lessened 25.9% reported a decline. The shipments reading rose to 20.3, the highest level since June.
The full-time employment index increased to 16.5, the highest level since June. A higher 22.8% of respondents reported a rise in employment while a lessened 6.3% reported a decline. The index of part-time employment rose to 5.3, the highest level in four months. Working the other way, the workweek reading fell sharply to 0.8, the lowest reading since February 2021.
On the pricing front, the index of prices paid deteriorated to 46.1 and continued its decline from 79.4 in October. A lessened 47.2% of respondents reported higher prices while a fewer 1.1% reported a decline. Working a bit higher was the prices received index to 24.1, but it failed to recover all of December’s decline.
The regional expectations at the index eased to 2.4 after rising to 6.4 in December. It was negative in October & November. It reached a high of 77.8 in July 2021. The expectations reading at the company level rose to 24.7 in January, its highest level in six months.
The Philadelphia Fed readings are available in Haver's SURVEYS database.
Tom Moeller
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Prior to joining Haver Analytics in 2000, Mr. Moeller worked as the Economist at Chancellor Capital Management from 1985 to 1999. There, he developed comprehensive economic forecasts and interpreted economic data for equity and fixed income portfolio managers. Also at Chancellor, Mr. Moeller worked as an equity analyst and was responsible for researching and rating companies in the economically sensitive automobile and housing industries for investment in Chancellor’s equity portfolio. Prior to joining Chancellor, Mr. Moeller was an Economist at Citibank from 1979 to 1984. He also analyzed pricing behavior in the metals industry for the Council on Wage and Price Stability in Washington, D.C. In 1999, Mr. Moeller received the award for most accurate forecast from the Forecasters' Club of New York. From 1990 to 1992 he was President of the New York Association for Business Economists. Mr. Moeller earned an M.B.A. in Finance from Fordham University, where he graduated in 1987. He holds a Bachelor of Arts in Economics from George Washington University.
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