U.S. Unemployment Insurance Initial Claims in Jan. 4 Week Decrease to Lowest in Almost 2 Years
Summary
- Continuing claims did increase the prior week.
- Insured unemployment rate extends run at 1.2%.
- New Jersey has highest insured unemployment rate, while Florida’s is lowest.
Initial claims for unemployment insurance decreased by 10,000 in the week ended January 4 to 201,000. This was the smallest since 199,000 the week of January 28, 2023, and noticeably lower than had been expected in the forecast median of the Action Economics Forecast Survey, which was 220,000. The latest four-week moving average of actual initial claims was 213,000, down from 223,250 through the prior week.
The total number of unemployment insurance beneficiaries, also known as “continued claims,” was 1.867 million in the week ended December 28, 2024, up from 1.834 million the week before. That earlier amount was revised down from 1.844 million reported before. The insured unemployment rate, that is, the number of beneficiaries as a percent of covered employment, was yet again 1.2%; it has been at that amount since March 11, 2023, except for three individual weeks when the rate ticked up to 1.3%.
Unemployment rates vary markedly across states. The Labor Department reports that for the week ended December 21, the insured unemployment rate was highest in New Jersey (2.4%), Rhode Island (2.3%), Minnesota and Washington (each 2.2%), Alaska and California (each 2.0%) and Massachusetts (1.9%). The rates were lowest in Florida (0.3%), Alabama and Virginia (each 0.4%), and New Hampshire, South Dakota and Tennessee (each 0.5%). Rates in other notable states include New York and Pennsylvania (each 1.7%), and Texas (1.0%). These state rates are not seasonally adjusted.
Data on weekly unemployment claims are from the Department of Labor itself, not the Bureau of Labor Statistics. They begin in 1967 and are contained in Haver’s WEEKLY database and summarized monthly in USECON. Data for individual states are in REGIONW back to December 1986. The expectations figure is from the Action Economics Forecast Survey in the AS1REPNA database.
Carol Stone, CBE
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Carol Stone, CBE came to Haver Analytics in 2003 following more than 35 years as a financial market economist at major Wall Street financial institutions, most especially Merrill Lynch and Nomura Securities. She has broad experience in analysis and forecasting of flow-of-funds accounts, the federal budget and Federal Reserve operations. At Nomura Securites, among other duties, she developed various indicator forecasting tools and edited a daily global publication produced in London and New York for readers in Tokyo. At Haver Analytics, Carol is a member of the Research Department, aiding database managers with research and documentation efforts, as well as posting commentary on select economic reports. In addition, she conducts Ways-of-the-World, a blog on economic issues for an Episcopal-Church-affiliated website, The Geranium Farm. During her career, Carol served as an officer of the Money Marketeers and the Downtown Economists Club. She has a PhD from NYU's Stern School of Business. She lives in Brooklyn, New York, and has a weekend home on Long Island.
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