S&P Flash PMIs Sag Globally

Manufacturing readings fall by a 'tick' in November, but service sector metrics eased by nearly a full point on average. These calculations are for unweighted averages of the above observations. US trends are opposite, so that the overall averages become worse when the US is excluded.

In November the eight reporters in the table have stronger composite readings reported in only three countries, in Japan, India, and the US. The US is the only reporter in the table to show improvements in manufacturing, services, and for the composite at the same time, in November. The UK, France, and EMU each report increased weakness across the composite, the manufacturing sector and in services in November. Among the 24 readings across eight reporters (…and three sectors for each reporter) in November only nine of these twenty-four are stronger month-to-month. This compares to ten in October and eight in September. Weakness has dominated strength over the past three-months across these readings.

Sequentially we look at 12 month, 6-month, and 3-month averages of finalized data, we see only six of twenty-four stronger over three-months compared to 6-months, after the 6-month averages were broadly stronger showing weakening in only seven of twenty-four cases. Over 12-months there were only nine weakening compared to 12-months ago and they were all confined to three economies: Germany, France and Japan. The unweighted averages of these reporters show little change in the averaging of these sector reading over 3-months, 6-months and 12-months.

The queue rankings underscore the sense of weakness. Assessed among the most industrialized countries, the US is starting to gain separation as its service sector is carrying it to a better overall (composite) standing. The US composite standing is at 69.5% and compares to Japan, the UK, France, Germany and EMU whose highest standing for the composite among these five reporters is a reading of 42.4% -as the group produces an average standing at the 26.1%.

The US is still strongly ‘plugged into’ the global economy as its manufacturing sector is still the third weakest by queue percentile standing in the table. But the vibrant US services sector is the economy’s guiding light – plus manufacturing has improved for two months in a row. The global economy is still floundering while the US shows signs of strengthening.