September U.S. JOLTS: Openings Rise Again but Remain on Downtrend
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Job openings edged up 0.6% in September on top of a downwardly revised 6.5% increase in August.
- Hires were little changed.
- Total separations fell 2.8% led by a 9.8% drop in layoffs.
The U.S. labor-market conditions tightened slightly further in September as job openings edged up 0.6% m/m (-12.0% y/y) to 9.553 million after a 6.5% monthly jump to 9.497 million in August, according to the Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey. The August increase was revised down from a 7.1% m/m increase to 9.557 million reported previously. The job openings rate was unchanged at 5.7%, the highest reading since May. This rate is calculated as the ratio of job openings to total nonfarm employment plus openings.
Though the number of openings and rate have rebounded in the past couple of months, both have been on a general downtrend since March 2022 and are well off their highs. Nonetheless, both remain well above levels that existed prior to the pandemic and indicate relatively tight, albeit softening, labor-market conditions historically speaking. The excess of openings over the number unemployed rose to 3.193 million in September, its highest level in three months, from 3.142 million in August.
Private sector openings increased 1.6% m/m (-12.4% y/y) to 8.570 million in September on top of a 6.0% monthly gain in August. The private job openings rate edged up to 6.0% in September, its highest reading since May, from 5.9% in August. The increase in private openings in September was led by a 14.7% m/m jump in openings in leisure and hospitality and a 14.9% m/m surge in construction. By contrast, openings fell in education and health services (-2.0% m/m) and in professional and business services (-6.0% m/m).
Total hiring rose 0.4% m/m (-5.7% y/y) to 5.871 million in September, its second consecutive monthly increase following two consecutive monthly declines, with the hiring rate unchanged at 3.7%. Private sector hiring rose 0.5% m/m (-5.6% y/y) following a 0.2% monthly gain in August. The private sector gains were led by leisure and hospitality (+8.7%) and trade, transportation and utilities (+8.7% m/m) with declines in manufacturing, construction, professional and business services, and education and health services. The private sector hiring rate was also unchanged at 4.1%. Government hiring fell 1.3% m/m after a 5.0% gain in August.
Total separations fell 2.8% m/m (-4.8% y/y) to 5.530 million in September, their third monthly decline in the past four months, after a 0.9% m/m increase in August. The 157,000 monthly decline reflected a 2,000 decline in quits, a 165,000 decrease in layoffs and a 10,000 increase in other separations. The total separation rate slipped to 3.5% from 3.6% in each of the previous three months. Total separations in the private sector fell 2.0% m/m (-3.5% y/y) with private quits up 0.6% m/m and private layoffs down 8.4% m/m.
Quits are generally voluntary separations initiated by the employee. Therefore, quits can serve as a measure of workers’ willingness or ability to leave jobs. By contrast, layoffs and discharges are involuntary separations initiated by the employer. Private quits are now exhibiting a clear downtrend while private layoffs and discharges appear to be on a slight uptrend. Both provide some indication of slightly softer labor-market conditions on a trend basis.
The Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) data are available in Haver’s USECON database.
Sandy Batten
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia. Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan. In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association. Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.
