Surge in Aircraft Orders Boosted U.S. Durable Goods Orders in September
by:Sandy Batten
|in:Economy in Brief
Summary
- Total orders rose a much larger-than-expected 4.7% m/m.
- Boosted by a 92.5% m/m jump in nondefense aircraft orders.
- Core capex orders increased 0.6% m/m while shipments were unchanged.
New orders for durable goods jumped a much larger-than-expected 4.7% m/m (7.8% y/y) in September, boosted by a 92.5% m/m surge in nondefense aircraft orders, following a downwardly revised 0.1% m/m decline in August (previously +0.1% m/m). Excluding nondefense aircraft orders, the remaining orders fell 0.9% m/m in September, due mostly to a 13.1% m/m decline in defense orders. Transportation equipment orders in general rose 12.7% m/m with orders ex transportation up 0.5% m/m, the same monthly gain as in August. The Action Economics Forecast Survey had looked for a 2.1% m/m increase in total orders in September.
Apart from the surge in aircraft orders, orders also rose in most other major sectors with orders for fabricated metal products, for machinery and for electrical equipment each up 0.9% m/m. Orders for computers and electronic products increased 1.0% m/m, Orders for primary metals slipped 0.4% m/m while “other” orders edged down 0.1% m/m. Within transportation, motor vehicle orders fell 1.0% m/m, their first monthly decline in three months, and defense aircraft orders slumped 15.2% m/m.
Orders for nondefense capital goods ex aircraft rose 0.6% m/m (+2.4% y/y) in September on top of an upwardly revised 1.1% monthly gain in August (previously 0.9% m/m). Shipments of nondefense capital goods ex aircraft, a good coincident indicator of business spending on equipment in the national accounts, were unchanged (+2.9% y/y) in September after a 0.8% m/m rise in August (revised from 0.7% m/m previously).
Shipments of all manufactured goods rose 0.4% m/m (+0.7% y/y) in September after a 1.3% monthly gain in August. Nondurable goods shipments increased 1.1% m/m (-1.0% y/y) on top of a 2.1% monthly jump in August (-2.2% y/y). Shipments of durable goods fell 0.3% m/m (+2.6% y/y) in September after a 0.5% monthly rise in August. Transportation shipments fell 1.1% (+5.4% y/y) following a 0.8% increase in August. Durable goods shipments excluding transportation edged up 0.1% m/m versus a 0.3% m/m gain in August.
Inventories of all manufacturing industries rose 0.2% m/m (0.1% y/y) in September after a 0.3% m/m rise in August (revised from 0.4% m/m). Durable goods inventories edged up 0.1% m/m while nondurable goods inventories rose 0.5% m/m in September.
Unfilled orders of durable goods jumped 1.4% m/m (7.5% y/y) in September after a 0.3% monthly rise in August (revised from 0.4% m/m previously). The September increase mostly reflected a 2.1% m/m increase in unfilled transportation orders. Excluding those, the remainder of unfilled orders edged up 0.1% m/m. Unfilled orders excluding transportation have been little changed over the past 12 months.
Manufacturers’ orders and shipments of durable goods, as well as nondurable goods, are compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau; they are available in Haver’s USECON database. Unfilled orders and inventories are also included. The Action Economics forecast data are in the AS1REPNA database.
Sandy Batten
AuthorMore in Author Profile »Sandy Batten has more than 30 years of experience analyzing industrial economies and financial markets and a wide range of experience across the financial services sector, government, and academia. Before joining Haver Analytics, Sandy was a Vice President and Senior Economist at Citibank; Senior Credit Market Analyst at CDC Investment Management, Managing Director at Bear Stearns, and Executive Director at JPMorgan. In 2008, Sandy was named the most accurate US forecaster by the National Association for Business Economics. He is a member of the New York Forecasters Club, NABE, and the American Economic Association. Prior to his time in the financial services sector, Sandy was a Research Officer at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Senior Staff Economist on the President’s Council of Economic Advisors, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Economic Policy at the US Treasury, and Economist at the International Monetary Fund. Sandy has taught economics at St. Louis University, Denison University, and Muskingun College. He has published numerous peer-reviewed articles in a wide range of academic publications. He has a B.A. in economics from the University of Richmond and a M.A. and Ph.D. in economics from The Ohio State University.
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